President-Elect Donald J. Trump was elected president in part because he vowed to reduce immigration, which ranged from sending criminals back to their home countries to more drastic measures such as mass deportations. During the campaign, Trump pledged to eliminate Temporary Protected Status, which allows workers from certain countries to come to the United States to work. If some of the major deportation initiatives, such as stripping out TPS, are successful, analysts predict the repercussions will be felt across the economy, particularly in construction, housing, and agriculture.
Economists and labor experts are most concerned about the economic impact of measures that would deport workers in the United States, both documented and undocumented.
Staffing agencies paid close attention to the election.
"The morning after the election, we sat down as a leadership team and explored what this means for talent availability," stated Jason Leverant, president and COO of the AtWork Group, a franchise-based national hiring firm. AtWork operates in 39 states and provides commercial staffing in immigrant-heavy verticals such as warehouses, industrial, and agriculture.
Workers, or "talent" in industry terminology, are already in short supply. While the worst labor crisis caused by the post-Covid economic boom has passed, and labor supply and demand have rebalanced in recent months, the number of workers available to fill jobs across the US economy remains a frequently watched metric. Employers and economists argue that mass deportation would exacerbate this economic challenge.
"If the proposed immigration policies come into reality, there could be a significant impact," Leverant said, citing estimates that a mass deportation program could result in up to one million difficult-to-fill prospective job opportunities.
"There are millions and millions of undocumented workers in the trades; we don't have enough Americans to do the work," said Chad Prinkey, CEO of Well Built Construction Consulting, which works with construction companies. "We need these workers; what we all want is for them to be documented; we want to know who they are, where they are, and make sure they are paying taxes; we don't want them gone."
Leverant says it is still unclear how jobs lost due to widespread deportation would be filled.
"Do we pull talent from one area to another, but then someone else loses it," Leverant asked. "This is pretty significant and we have to stay ahead of it."
Leverant claims he is not concerned about losing any of the 20,000 workers AtWork sends to various locations because document status is rigorously checked; however, if other companies lose workers, they will rely even more heavily on staffing agencies like AtWork for talent that is already in short supply. And supply and demand determine worker wages, which will be forced higher. This will have an impact on the entire supply chain, including the grocery or sporting goods store.
Economists and labor experts are most concerned about the economic impact of measures that would deport workers in the United States, both documented and undocumented.
Staffing agencies paid close attention to the election.
"The morning after the election, we sat down as a leadership team and explored what this means for talent availability," stated Jason Leverant, president and COO of the AtWork Group, a franchise-based national hiring firm. AtWork operates in 39 states and provides commercial staffing in immigrant-heavy verticals such as warehouses, industrial, and agriculture.
Workers, or "talent" in industry terminology, are already in short supply. While the worst labor crisis caused by the post-Covid economic boom has passed, and labor supply and demand have rebalanced in recent months, the number of workers available to fill jobs across the US economy remains a frequently watched metric. Employers and economists argue that mass deportation would exacerbate this economic challenge.
"If the proposed immigration policies come into reality, there could be a significant impact," Leverant said, citing estimates that a mass deportation program could result in up to one million difficult-to-fill prospective job opportunities.
How many undocumented immigrants work in the United States?
There are several figures available about the undocumented immigrant population in the United States. According to the left-leaning Center for American Progress, there are around 11.3 million people, 7 million of whom work. The American Immigration Council, an advocacy group for immigration expansion, estimates that there are approximately 11 million undocumented people in the United States, citing statistics from an American Community Survey. The nonpartisan Pew Research Center puts the figure closer to 8 million people."There are millions and millions of undocumented workers in the trades; we don't have enough Americans to do the work," said Chad Prinkey, CEO of Well Built Construction Consulting, which works with construction companies. "We need these workers; what we all want is for them to be documented; we want to know who they are, where they are, and make sure they are paying taxes; we don't want them gone."
Leverant says it is still unclear how jobs lost due to widespread deportation would be filled.
"Do we pull talent from one area to another, but then someone else loses it," Leverant asked. "This is pretty significant and we have to stay ahead of it."
Leverant claims he is not concerned about losing any of the 20,000 workers AtWork sends to various locations because document status is rigorously checked; however, if other companies lose workers, they will rely even more heavily on staffing agencies like AtWork for talent that is already in short supply. And supply and demand determine worker wages, which will be forced higher. This will have an impact on the entire supply chain, including the grocery or sporting goods store.
"We are playing the long game now, the pain will be felt and we will see shortages and slow-downs, and delays on every front," he told reporters.
Limited labor supply is likely to result in produce not reaching the market since there aren't enough personnel to distribute it, as well as construction projects being delayed.
Limited labor supply is likely to result in produce not reaching the market since there aren't enough personnel to distribute it, as well as construction projects being delayed.
Worries about the workforce extend to skilled labor and technology.
There are also concerns regarding the potentially harmful impact of stricter immigration policies on skilled workers.
"This is more than just low-skilled labor; it also affects tech workers and engineers. We don't have enough competent personnel there either to fill the jobs," Leverant said, adding that he doesn't expect doctors and scientists to be gathered up and deported, but restrictions on H-1B visas and a generally more hostile environment may discourage talent from entering.
Janessa Hollingshead, head of expansion at Uber Works, the ride-sharing company's on-demand staffing arm, agrees that technology will be impacted if the past is any indication.
"This is more than just low-skilled labor; it also affects tech workers and engineers. We don't have enough competent personnel there either to fill the jobs," Leverant said, adding that he doesn't expect doctors and scientists to be gathered up and deported, but restrictions on H-1B visas and a generally more hostile environment may discourage talent from entering.
Janessa Hollingshead, head of expansion at Uber Works, the ride-sharing company's on-demand staffing arm, agrees that technology will be impacted if the past is any indication.
"The tech industry relies heavily on immigrants to fill highly technical, crucial roles," Hollingshead said, noting that during Trump's first presidency, Uber notified all tech workers on H-1B visas that if they went to their home countries for vacation, they would not be able to return.
According to the American Immigration Council, during the first Trump administration, the government's U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services denied a higher percentage of H-1B petitions than in the previous four years, but many of the denials were overturned, resulting in a lower level of denials by fiscal 2020 (13% versus 24% in 2018). Fiscal years 2021 and 2022 had the lowest denial rates ever recorded.
According to the American Immigration Council, during the first Trump administration, the government's U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services denied a higher percentage of H-1B petitions than in the previous four years, but many of the denials were overturned, resulting in a lower level of denials by fiscal 2020 (13% versus 24% in 2018). Fiscal years 2021 and 2022 had the lowest denial rates ever recorded.
According to Hollingshead, tech corporations in the United States will be pushed to recruit tech talent from previously neglected pools of people already in the country.
"U.S. companies are going to need to figure out how to do this or face an even more dire labor shortage," Hollingshead tells me.
At his Madison Square Garden event in New York shortly before the election, Trump stated, "On Day 1, I will launch the largest deportation program in American history to get the criminals out."
"I wouldn't dismiss his mass deportation policy as bluster. We have to presume he means what he says," says David Leopold, chair of the immigration practice group at U.B. Greensfelder legal firm.
"U.S. companies are going to need to figure out how to do this or face an even more dire labor shortage," Hollingshead tells me.
At his Madison Square Garden event in New York shortly before the election, Trump stated, "On Day 1, I will launch the largest deportation program in American history to get the criminals out."
"I wouldn't dismiss his mass deportation policy as bluster. We have to presume he means what he says," says David Leopold, chair of the immigration practice group at U.B. Greensfelder legal firm.
Nonetheless, despite the potential ripple effect on the job market, mass deportations may be impossible to implement.
"It is very expensive to remove 11 million people," Leopold said, anticipating that Trump will pick up immigrants using both ICE and federal agencies, as well as local law enforcement.
"It is very expensive to remove 11 million people," Leopold said, anticipating that Trump will pick up immigrants using both ICE and federal agencies, as well as local law enforcement.
In a phone interview with NBC News's Kristen Welker shortly after the election results, Trump invoked the darker rhetoric on migrants that proved successful during the campaign while saying he isn't opposed to people entering the country — in fact, he said more people will be needed if his administration's strategy of requiring businesses to establish operations in the United States succeeds.
"We want people to come in," Trump explained. "We'll have a lot of enterprises pouring into our country. They want to come to our country. We want firms, manufacturers, plants, and auto factories to come to our country, and they will. As a result, we need people, but not necessarily those who are in jail for murdering seven people.
The American Immigration Council estimates that in a longer-term mass deportation operation targeting one million people per year — which it says reflects "more conservative proposals" made by mass-deportation supporters — the cost would average out to $88 billion per year, for a total cost of $967.9 billion over more than a decade.
During his interview with NBC News, Trump disregarded worries about the expense. "It's not a question of a price tag," he told me. "We have no choice. When people are slain and murdered, when drug lords ruin countries and then return to those countries because they are not staying here, there is no price tag," Trump stated.
During his interview with NBC News, Trump disregarded worries about the expense. "It's not a question of a price tag," he told me. "We have no choice. When people are slain and murdered, when drug lords ruin countries and then return to those countries because they are not staying here, there is no price tag," Trump stated.
According to Leopold, depending on the severity of the plan, changes may affect customers in the form of higher pricing, supply issues, and limited access to goods and services.
Construction and housing damage
Nan Wu, research director of the American Immigration Council, shares others' concerns about consumer turbulence if deportations increase under Trump.
"Mass deportation would exacerbate ongoing U.S. labor shortages, especially in industries that rely heavily on undocumented immigrant workers," Wu said, citing AIC's research that shows the construction industry would lose one in every eight workers. According to AIC's research, 14% of construction workers in the United States are undocumented.
"Mass deportation would exacerbate ongoing U.S. labor shortages, especially in industries that rely heavily on undocumented immigrant workers," Wu said, citing AIC's research that shows the construction industry would lose one in every eight workers. According to AIC's research, 14% of construction workers in the United States are undocumented.
"The removal of so many workers within a short period would push up construction costs and lead to delays in building new homes, making housing even less affordable in many parts of the country," Wu told CNN.
She claims that the same is true for the agriculture industry, which would lose one out of every eight jobs.
"In certain occupations, around one-quarter of farm workers, agricultural graders, and sorters are undocumented workers. "Losing agricultural workers who grow, pick, and pack our food would reduce domestic food production and raise food prices," Wu stated.
According to USDA figures, the amount of undocumented farm laborers was 41 percent in 2018, the most recent year for which data is available, with California having the most.
The AIC predicts that the US GDP will shrink by $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion.
The conservative think group American Compass advocates for a "skills-based immigration policy" that would necessitate "serious immigration enforcement that prevents people from working illegally." Such enforcement must address both the future influx of immigrants and the millions of illegal workers who are already present, according to a policy paper.
She claims that the same is true for the agriculture industry, which would lose one out of every eight jobs.
"In certain occupations, around one-quarter of farm workers, agricultural graders, and sorters are undocumented workers. "Losing agricultural workers who grow, pick, and pack our food would reduce domestic food production and raise food prices," Wu stated.
According to USDA figures, the amount of undocumented farm laborers was 41 percent in 2018, the most recent year for which data is available, with California having the most.
The AIC predicts that the US GDP will shrink by $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion.
The conservative think group American Compass advocates for a "skills-based immigration policy" that would necessitate "serious immigration enforcement that prevents people from working illegally." Such enforcement must address both the future influx of immigrants and the millions of illegal workers who are already present, according to a policy paper.
Among its policy priorities are mandatory use of the E-Verify system by all employers, along with severe criminal penalties for repeated or willful violations; short-term work permits available to illegal immigrants who have already been in the country for a significant period—but with the establishment of a timeline for when they must leave the country based on how long they've already been residing in it; and for those who have resided in the U.S. for the longest,
According to Prinkey, a mass deportation operation would have far-reaching consequences. "One of the natural challenges with undocumented workers is that we don't know how many there are because they are not documented. It is not straightforward. "I would bet that half or more of on-site labor is undocumented in certain geographic areas," he stated.
"If you are building a nuclear facility or colleges and universities, you might be working with very few undocumented workers because there is a much higher level of oversight," Mr. Prinkey said. "Those are sectors that will shrug and go forward." He expected the same of union workers.
However, Prinkey believes that single-family and multi-family house building would be significantly impacted and that these segments of the housing market may be "paralyzed."
"There will be incredible delays; the average 18-month project could take five years to complete because there are so few bodies," says Prinkey. "It will be less devastating in Boston than Austin; in Austin, it would shut down every project," he said.
According to Prinkey, a mass deportation operation would have far-reaching consequences. "One of the natural challenges with undocumented workers is that we don't know how many there are because they are not documented. It is not straightforward. "I would bet that half or more of on-site labor is undocumented in certain geographic areas," he stated.
"If you are building a nuclear facility or colleges and universities, you might be working with very few undocumented workers because there is a much higher level of oversight," Mr. Prinkey said. "Those are sectors that will shrug and go forward." He expected the same of union workers.
However, Prinkey believes that single-family and multi-family house building would be significantly impacted and that these segments of the housing market may be "paralyzed."
"There will be incredible delays; the average 18-month project could take five years to complete because there are so few bodies," says Prinkey. "It will be less devastating in Boston than Austin; in Austin, it would shut down every project," he said.
Despite the bleak forecast, Prinkey does not believe mass deportation will occur. "Donald Trump is a developer, and he understands what is going on. "Mass deportation is not possible without severe economic consequences," he said.
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