US Unemployment Hits Four-Year High as November Jobs Report Reveals Troubling Economic Signals

Workers waiting in line at a job fair amid rising unemployment rates in November 2025
A job seeker speaks with a recruiter at the KeySource booth at the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida, on April 30, 2025.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images

The U.S. labor market showed a clear loss of momentum in the delayed November 2025 employment report. On December 16, the Bureau of Labor Statistics initially reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November while the unemployment rate increased to 4.6% from 4.4% in September. The release was delayed because of the federal government shutdown, and BLS did not collect household-survey data for October.

Those figures were preliminary. BLS later revised the November unemployment rate to 4.5% through its annual seasonal-adjustment process, and subsequent establishment-survey revisions reduced the November payroll gain to 41,000. The original December 16 release remains useful for understanding what policymakers and markets knew at the time; an archived copy of the November 2025 Employment Situation preserves that initial release.

Shutdown Disruptions Complicate the November Reading

The government shutdown created an unusual gap in the labor-market data. BLS did not conduct the household survey for October, so there is no official October 2025 unemployment rate. In the November release, household-survey comparisons therefore generally ran from September to November rather than month to month.

BLS also cautioned that the November household estimates carried slightly higher-than-usual standard errors because of a lower survey response rate, changes to the weighting process and the two-month comparison period. That means the move in unemployment was an important signal, but the report required more care than a normal monthly release.

In the initial report, 7.8 million people were unemployed in November. The broader U-6 measure of labor underutilization, which includes people marginally attached to the labor force and people working part time for economic reasons, was initially reported at 8.7%. The number of people working part time for economic reasons rose to about 5.5 million, up 909,000 from September. These details are available in the existing federal employment data link.

Federal Payroll Cuts Dominated the October Decline

The December 16 release initially estimated that total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 105,000 in October. A major reason was a 162,000 decline in federal government employment. BLS said some federal employees who had accepted deferred resignation offers earlier in 2025 came off federal payrolls in October.

Federal government employment then declined by another 6,000 in November in the initial estimate. BLS reported at the time that federal employment was down by 271,000 from its January 2025 peak. The sharp October government decline is important context because it made the headline payroll loss look much weaker than the private-sector picture alone.

Later revisions made the October payroll decline larger. In January 2026, BLS revised October from a loss of 105,000 jobs to a loss of 173,000. After the annual benchmark revision released in February 2026, the October decline was revised again to 140,000. These changes illustrate why early monthly payroll estimates should be treated as estimates rather than final counts.

Health Care and Construction Led the Initial November Gains

Health care was the strongest major contributor in the initial November release, adding 46,000 jobs. Ambulatory health care services accounted for 24,000 of those positions, while hospitals and nursing and residential care facilities each added about 11,000.

Construction added 28,000 jobs in the initial estimate, led by a 19,000 increase among nonresidential specialty trade contractors. Social assistance also rose by 18,000, with most of that gain in individual and family services.

These gains mattered because payroll growth had become concentrated in a relatively small number of industries. The initial BLS report said total payroll employment had shown little net change since April, a broader sign that hiring momentum had slowed even though some sectors continued to expand.

Transportation Weakened While Many Major Industries Were Flat

Transportation and warehousing lost 18,000 jobs in the initial November estimate, with the decline concentrated in couriers and messengers. BLS said the sector had lost 78,000 jobs since its February 2025 peak.

Manufacturing, retail trade, leisure and hospitality, information, financial activities, professional and business services and several other major industries showed little change in the initial report. That is a more useful way to read the month than treating small movements in every industry as evidence of a broad collapse.

Wage Growth Slowed as Labor Underutilization Increased

Average hourly earnings for private nonfarm workers rose 0.1% in November to $36.86 in the initial release and were up 3.5% from a year earlier. The combination of slower wage growth, higher unemployment and an increase in involuntary part-time work pointed to a labor market with less bargaining pressure than earlier in the expansion.

The original article understated youth unemployment. BLS initially reported a 16.3% unemployment rate for teenagers ages 16 to 19 in November, not 10.6%. Long-term unemployment was also better described in levels and shares: about 1.9 million people had been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer, representing 24.3% of all unemployed people in the initial November release.

What the Report Meant for the Federal Reserve

The November jobs report was released after the Federal Reserve's December 10 policy meeting, so it did not directly cause that meeting's decision. At that meeting, the Fed lowered the federal funds target range by a quarter percentage point to 3.50%–3.75% and said job gains had slowed while downside risks to employment had risen. The official December 10 FOMC statement provides the policy context.

The report therefore reinforced an already visible tension for monetary policy: softer employment conditions argued for caution about keeping interest rates too restrictive, while inflation remained above the Fed's 2% longer-run goal. News Fusion 365 had previously discussed that trade-off in its coverage of inflation complicating the Federal Reserve's situation.

Later Revisions Changed the Headline Numbers

The most important later context is that the December 16 figures did not remain unchanged. In January 2026, BLS revised the seasonally adjusted November unemployment rate from 4.6% to 4.5%. It also revised November payroll growth from 64,000 to 56,000 and October's payroll decline from 105,000 to 173,000. The December 2025 Employment Situation release documented those revisions.

The annual establishment-survey benchmark released in February 2026 changed the payroll history again. BLS reported that November payroll growth was revised from 56,000 to 41,000, while the October decline was revised from 173,000 to 140,000. The benchmark also reduced the estimated March 2025 payroll level by 898,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis. The January 2026 Employment Situation release explains the benchmark process and the revised monthly figures.

These later revisions do not erase the significance of the original December report. They do show why monthly labor data should be read as an evolving estimate. The central message remained that hiring had slowed substantially during 2025, federal workforce reductions weighed heavily on payrolls, and the labor market entered 2026 with considerably less momentum than it had earlier in the expansion.

Related News Fusion 365 Coverage

For additional context on federal economic agencies and data policy, see News Fusion 365's earlier coverage of the Trump administration's approach to economic reporting.

Read More on News Fusion 365

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