Airbus expects Turkey to require approximately 1,800 new passenger aircraft through 2045, accounting for roughly one-fifth of projected demand across Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), as the country's aviation industry expands faster than the wider regional market.
The forecast was outlined on October 15, 2026, by Antonio Da Costa, Airbus vice president for market analysis and forecast, during a presentation in Istanbul, according to Reuters reporting.
Airbus projects annual passenger traffic growth of approximately 4.5% in Turkey over the next two decades, compared with 2.9% across Europe-CIS. The manufacturer also expects the combined fleet operated by Turkish airlines to more than double during that period.
These figures represent long-term industry projections, not confirmed aircraft orders or guaranteed deliveries.
Why Airbus Expects Faster Aviation Growth in Turkey
Turkey's position between Europe, Asia and the Middle East has helped establish Istanbul as a major international connecting hub. Airbus identifies tourism, growing demand for international travel and connecting passengers as important factors supporting the country's aviation outlook.
According to Da Costa, the number of flights taken annually per person in Turkey could triple to 3.1 by 2045, exceeding the projected Europe-CIS regional average of 2.4.
Recent passenger statistics provide context for the industry's existing scale. Figures published on October 12 by Turkey's General Directorate of State Airports Authority (DHMİ) show that Turkish airports handled approximately 193.2 million passenger movements, including direct transit passengers, between January and September 2026.
That represented a 2.9% increase from the corresponding period in 2025. Istanbul Airport alone recorded approximately 64.5 million passenger movements during the nine-month period.
However, observed airport passenger movements and Airbus's forecast annual passenger traffic growth are different measures covering different periods. The latest figures demonstrate the current scale of Turkish aviation but do not establish that the projected growth rate will be achieved.
Da Costa also suggested that disruptions affecting parts of the Middle East had redirected some international travelers and connecting traffic toward Turkey. He viewed the additional traffic as a potential contributor to longer-term growth, although the durability of those shifts remains uncertain.
What the 1,800-Aircraft Forecast Actually Means
Airbus's projection covers two distinct requirements: expanding airline capacity to accommodate additional passengers and replacing aircraft that are expected to leave service.
That distinction matters because 1,800 new aircraft deliveries would not necessarily increase Turkey's operating fleet by the same amount. Some aircraft would replace older jets rather than add capacity.
Across the wider Europe-CIS region, Airbus forecasts demand for 8,190 new passenger aircraft through 2045. Of that total, approximately 3,600 aircraft would support fleet expansion, while 4,590 would replace existing aircraft.
The figures form part of the manufacturer's Global Market Forecast for 2026–2045, which anticipates worldwide demand for 42,060 new commercial passenger aircraft over the same period.
Turkey's projected 1,800 aircraft represent approximately 22% of the stated regional total, consistent with Airbus's broader characterization of its share as about one-fifth. The available Turkey-specific figures do not establish precisely how many deliveries would be replacements and how many would support fleet growth.
The projections also cover market demand across aircraft manufacturers. They should not be interpreted as an expectation that Airbus itself will secure all the corresponding orders.
What the Outlook Means for Airlines and Manufacturers
If Turkey's aviation market expands along the lines Airbus anticipates, airlines could require additional aircraft, maintenance capacity, operational infrastructure and financing. Aircraft manufacturers and aviation service providers would have opportunities to compete for that business.
However, the distinction between market potential and actual procurement is significant.
For example, Turkish Airlines disclosed in September 2026 that it had decided to purchase 100 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, with options for another 50, for scheduled deliveries between 2033 and 2037.
The company's regulatory disclosure illustrates how airline fleet planning translates into specific manufacturer commitments. The 100 firm aircraft and 50 options are separate contractual categories, and the options should not be treated as guaranteed purchases.
For Airbus, the broader opportunity extends beyond immediate aircraft sales. Fleet modernization may support future demand for maintenance, technical services and aircraft replacement programs, although the commercial value of those opportunities depends on contracts that have yet to be secured.
Several factors could influence whether the long-term forecast materializes. Aircraft production capacity, engine and component availability, airline financing conditions, airport infrastructure and geopolitical developments may affect the pace of fleet expansion and renewal.
Ultimately, Airbus's projection highlights Turkey's potential importance within the European and CIS aviation market through 2045. Whether the country reaches the forecast demand of 1,800 new aircraft will depend on sustained passenger growth, airline investment decisions and manufacturers' ability to deliver the required capacity.
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