Germany entered its February 23, 2025 federal election at an unusually consequential moment. The collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's governing coalition had brought the vote forward by months, while the opening weeks of President Donald Trump's second term were forcing European governments to reassess assumptions about transatlantic security, Ukraine and the future direction of NATO.
The election was therefore about more than Germany's domestic political difficulties. Europe's largest economy was struggling with weak growth, disputes over migration and government spending, and pressure on its export-oriented industrial model. At the same time, German leaders faced questions about how much responsibility Europe would have to assume for its own defense if Washington changed its approach.
A German election transformed by events in Washington
Germany's three-party coalition of Scholz's Social Democrats, the Greens and the Free Democrats broke apart in November 2024, shortly after the U.S. presidential election. The resulting political crisis led to an early Bundestag election on February 23, 2025 rather than the previously expected vote later in the year.
That compressed campaign coincided with rapid changes in U.S. foreign policy. European concern intensified after Washington opened contacts with Moscow over the war in Ukraine and U.S. officials indicated that European governments would not have a direct seat in initial negotiations between the United States, Russia and Ukraine.
Those developments did not mean that NATO had ended or that U.S. forces were immediately leaving Germany. But they sharpened an existing debate over whether European countries needed greater capacity to defend themselves and support Ukraine with less dependence on Washington.
For Germany, which hosts a substantial U.S. military presence and has relied on NATO's collective-defense framework for decades, the question had particularly significant implications.
Merz placed European leadership at the center of his campaign
Friedrich Merz, leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union, increasingly framed the election around Germany's ability to provide stronger European leadership. Speaking during the final phase of the campaign, he described the changes coming from Washington as much more than a routine transition between U.S. administrations.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis reinforced that message in a recorded appearance at a Merz campaign event in Oberhausen, telling him that Germany and Europe would need leadership at a difficult moment.
Scholz likewise argued that Germany and other European states needed to be prepared to assume greater responsibility for their security. Although Germany's major mainstream parties differed over economic, migration and fiscal policy, concerns about Europe's security environment became increasingly prominent during the campaign.
Germany's economic weakness complicated the challenge
The foreign-policy debate unfolded against a difficult economic backdrop. Germany's Federal Statistical Office reported that real gross domestic product contracted in 2024, marking a second consecutive year of declining economic output at the time.
The statistical agency cited several pressures, including stronger competition facing German exporters, high energy costs, elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty. Manufacturing and construction were particularly weak.
Those problems intensified political arguments over taxes, regulation, infrastructure, public spending, energy policy and Germany's constitutional limits on government borrowing. Immigration was another major campaign issue following years of debate over asylum, integration and border policy.
The combination created a difficult policy tradeoff: Germany faced calls for greater defense and infrastructure spending at the same time that political parties remained divided over borrowing, taxation and fiscal rules.
The AfD added another dimension to transatlantic tensions
The Alternative for Germany, or AfD, was also central to the election. The party had moved substantially higher in national support compared with the previous federal election, while Germany's other major parties continued to reject governing coalitions with it.
Comments from prominent figures associated with the Trump administration and its political orbit attracted particular attention during the campaign. Vice President JD Vance criticized Germany's approach to political exclusion during a speech at the Munich Security Conference, while Elon Musk publicly expressed support for the AfD.
Those interventions generated criticism from German politicians who argued that foreign political figures were inserting themselves into Germany's election debate. Supporters of the comments framed them instead as legitimate criticism of European political practices.
The AfD itself remained highly controversial inside Germany over its positions on migration, European integration and Russia, as well as statements and conduct by some party figures concerning Germany's Nazi-era history. Those controversies should not be reduced to a claim that the party as a whole simply "takes pride in Nazi slogans"; specific allegations and legal findings concern particular politicians, statements and organizations and require precise attribution.
What happened after the election
Later developments clarified the political outcome that was still uncertain during the original campaign.
According to the final results published by Germany's Federal Returning Officer, the CDU won 22.6% of second votes and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, received 6.0%. The AfD finished second with 20.8%, approximately double its 2021 share, while Scholz's Social Democratic Party received 16.4%. The Greens won 11.6% and The Left 8.8%. Voter turnout reached 82.5%.
The final Bundestag allocation gave the CDU 164 seats and the CSU 44, compared with 152 for the AfD, 120 for the SPD, 85 for the Greens, 64 for The Left and one for the South Schleswig Voters' Association.
The result gave the CDU/CSU bloc the largest parliamentary representation but not a majority, making coalition negotiations necessary. The Christian Democrats and Social Democrats subsequently formed a coalition government.
On May 6, 2025, the Bundestag elected Merz as Germany's chancellor in a second round of voting. He received 325 of 618 votes cast, exceeding the 316 votes required. His election completed the transfer of power from the Scholz government and turned the campaign debate over Germany's role in Europe into a governing challenge.
Germany's broader European role
Angela Merkel had often served as a central figure in European crisis management during her 16 years as chancellor, frequently working closely with successive U.S. administrations. The environment confronting her successors was different.
By the 2025 election, German policymakers were debating not whether the United States remained an important NATO ally—it did—but how Europe should respond to greater uncertainty over Washington's long-term security priorities and approach to Russia's war against Ukraine.
The election could not by itself determine the future of NATO or Europe's relationship with the United States. Those depend on decisions by many governments and institutions. But Germany's economic weight, military commitments and central position within the European Union meant that the government emerging from the vote would have substantial influence over Europe's response.
Subsequent economic data also added nuance to the bleak picture that dominated the campaign. After two years of recession, Germany's real GDP returned to slight growth in 2025, although weak investment, declining exports and structural pressures remained significant challenges.
What began as an early election triggered by the collapse of a domestic coalition therefore became intertwined with a broader question that continues beyond any single German government: how much economic, diplomatic and military responsibility Europe is prepared to assume as the transatlantic relationship changes.
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