Scientists have been keeping a close eye on 2024 YR4, a space rock that has a higher probability of striking Earth in 2032. But don't worry, NASA declared on Monday that there was no longer any threat from the asteroid and that there was almost no chance that it would strike Earth.
According to Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, "I knew this was likely to go away as we collected more data." "I was getting a good night's sleep."
Scientists estimated that 2024 YR4 had a greater than 1 percent chance of hitting Earth, the only huge asteroid known to have such a high impact probability, just days after skywatchers reported their views of the asteroid on Dec. 27, 2024.
Through January and February, the probability of impact increased from 1.2 percent to a peak of 3.1 percent on Tuesday last week as experts examined additional data on the object.
Although it might not seem like much, the likelihood was greater than any NASA has ever documented for an object this size or larger.
2024 YR4 has a width of 130 to 300 feet, which is large enough to possibly destroy an entire city. Early projections of the asteroid's path suggested that it would collide with or detonate in midair above major cities like Lagos, Nigeria, and Mumbai, India.
2024 YR4 has a width of 130 to 300 feet, which is large enough to possibly destroy an entire city. Early projections of the asteroid's path suggested that it would collide with or detonate in midair above major cities like Lagos, Nigeria, and Mumbai, India.
However, the likelihood that 2024 YR4 would strike Earth started to decline the day after the 3.1 percent prediction, falling to 1.5 percent on February 19 and then to 0.3 percent the next day. NASA announced the "all clear" on X on Monday afternoon, stating that the likelihood had further decreased to 0.004 percent or a one in 25,000 possibilities.
Dr. Farnocchia says the value is already out of date. A one in 59,000 chance is the most recent estimate, which is considerably lower.
Over the last two months, as astronomers have learned more about the asteroid from ground-based observatories, the likelihood of collision has changed. Its path across the solar system became less uncertain with more information until planetary guards concluded that we were no longer in danger.
Dr. Farnocchia stated, "This is typical behavior, what you would expect when you discover an asteroid." He went on to say that it is "just the scientific process at work."
Even though Earth might have avoided being destroyed by an asteroid, NASA stated that there was a 1.7% possibility that 2024 YR4 would strike our moon and leave another crater on its already-speckled surface.
The agency is continuing to monitor the asteroid from observatories around the world, including the Lowell Discovery Telescope in Arizona and the Nordic Optical Telescope in the Canary Islands. By the end of April 2024, YR4 will be hidden from our view until 2028.
“The asteroid is going to do what it’s going to do,” Dr. Farnocchia said. That astronomers found it and measured the odds of a collision so far in advance, he added, “is a good sign that we’re doing what we’re supposed to do to deal with the risk of asteroid impacts.”
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