A recent proposal for an interim ceasefire in Ukraine was rejected by Russia's Putin. His friendship with Trump, nevertheless, is important to him.
A temporary truce in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was vehemently opposed by Russian President Vladimir V. Putin as late as January.
After a month of Trump's foreign policy shift and Russian advances in a pivotal fight, the Kremlin seems eager to consider the 30-day ceasefire offer from the US and Ukraine, which was made public on Tuesday.
The Kremlin is "carefully studying" the outcome of Tuesday's negotiations between the United States and Ukraine, according to Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putin's spokesman. The two sides have called for a monthlong ceasefire.
He anticipated that Russia would be apprised of "the details of the negotiations that took place and the understandings that were reached" in the next days by the US, he said. He suggested that Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump could speak over the phone again, indicating that the Russian government viewed the request for a ceasefire as a smaller component of a larger diplomatic frenzy.
Over the past month, Mr. Putin has witnessed a dizzying shift in his geopolitical fortunes as Mr. Trump has shifted American foreign policy toward Russia, alienated American allies, and scolded Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in the Oval Office.
Mr. Putin's situation has been further complicated by the proposal of a combined ceasefire by the US and Ukraine. He wants a decisive win in Ukraine and wants to be close to Mr. Trump, but this will make it harder for him to achieve both goals.
Despite Trump's claims that he wants the war to end quickly, Putin has shown that he will not back down until he gets huge concessions from both the West and Kyiv, such as a promise that NATO will reduce its presence in Central and Eastern Europe and that Ukraine will not join.
During his inaugural remarks to Mr. Trump on January 20, Mr. Putin made it plain that any negotiations about Ukraine should aim "not be a short cease-fire, not some kind of respite." His statement indicated that Russia aimed for "a long-term peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all people, all nations who live in this region." I
According to experts, Mr. Putin's stance against a temporary ceasefire was based on the calculation that Moscow would lose its influence if the war were to end without obtaining any concessions, especially as Russian forces were making gains on the battlefield.
Analysts speculate that Mr. Putin may have recalculated his calculations to remain on good terms with Mr. Trump in light of their phone conversation on February 12 and the White House's subsequent alignment with Russia at the UN and elsewhere.
The Kremlin will have its hands full with that.
A Moscow-based political analyst named Ilya Grashchenkov has speculated that the Kremlin may be inclined to accept a "tactically unfavorable but strategically favorable" truce if only to "show that it's a peacemaker."
The Trump administration has maintained its interaction with the Kremlin, even though Russians were not present during Tuesday's discussions in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. On Tuesday, C.I.A. director John Ratcliffe met with Sergei Naryshkin, according to Russian news sources published on Wednesday.
An anonymous source and an individual acquainted with the subject both stated that Mr. Steve Witkoff, who was Mr. Trump's envoy and who met with Mr. Putin for several hours last month, intends to visit Russia soon. Mr. Trump expressed his desire for a permanent ceasefire being established in the coming days and told reporters on Tuesday afternoon that he anticipated he would speak with Mr. Putin this week.
Russia expert Samuel Charap of the RAND Corporation remarked, "It certainly is not impossible that the Russians would accept this" about the 30-day offer. They no longer seek an unconditional, short-term truce; rather, they have a vested interest in how they are perceived by Washington.
A 90-minute interview that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov gave to three American video bloggers—including Andrew Napolitano, a former Fox News personality—was broadcast on Wednesday by Russia's foreign ministry, adding to Moscow's charm offensive targeting Trump's camp.
Speaking English, Mr. Lavrov lauded the Trump administration for turning around the Democrats' "departure from Christian values" and stated that Russia was prepared to engage in "normal relations" with the US.
The recent advances by Russia in driving Ukrainian forces from Kursk, the Russian border region where Ukraine unexpectedly seized hundreds of square miles of land in August, may have an impact on Mr. Putin's calculations as well.
Despite Mr. Zelensky's claims that he intended to utilize the area in future negotiations as leverage, the Kremlin clarified that it would not engage in talks if Ukraine maintained control of the territory.
Sergei Markov, a Moscow-based pro-Kremlin political analyst, claims that since the Kursk region is mostly under Russian control again, Mr. Putin is less likely to be embarrassed into agreeing to a ceasefire that would give Ukraine control of a large portion of Russian territory.
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