Iran’s nuclear program experienced one of its most significant disruptions in years on Friday, following a series of Israeli airstrikes targeting atomic facilities, leading scientists and military leaders to a noticeable escalation of its ongoing efforts to curb Tehran’s nuclear aspirations.
Israeli authorities labeled the strikes as a preemptive action aimed at undermining Iran’s capacity to develop nuclear weapons, citing a concerning and rapid increase in uranium enrichment over the recent six months.
Initial damage evaluations suggest that the assaults on Iran’s Natanz nuclear site were especially impactful, resulting in a power outage in the subterranean section where centrifuges for uranium enrichment are located, according to a statement from the Israel Defense Forces released on Friday. Natanz had been a key component of Iran’s nuclear framework and the location where a significant portion of its uranium fuel has been generated.
On Friday evening, Iranian state media conveyed that Israel had started targeting another major enrichment site in Iran—Fordow, which is situated deep inside a mountain and is deemed almost invulnerable to standard aerial attacks.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu referred to the operation as a “strike at the core of Iran’s nuclear weaponization efforts,” stating that it would persist “for as many days as necessary” to eliminate the threat. Explosions were reported in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv on Friday evening as Iran initiated a wide-ranging counterattack against Israel.
Iran maintains that it is not pursuing bomb development and claims its nuclear program is focused on peaceful energy objectives, although international inspectors have found mounting evidence to the contrary. The United Nations' nuclear regulatory body noted that Iran’s accumulation of 60% enriched uranium—just shy of weapons-grade—has become sufficient to potentially produce multiple bombs if further processed. Analysts indicate that Iran could theoretically manufacture enough material for a bomb in as little as a week, and that no other nation possesses this level of uranium without being associated with a nuclear weapons program.
“This action was indeed taken as a final option,” remarks Matt Kroenig, the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center on international security, who has experience in the Department of Defense and intelligence sectors during the administrations of Bush, Obama, and Trump. “Time had run out. The most reliable estimates indicated that Iran’s timeframe to obtain enough weapons-grade material for one bomb had dwindled to roughly a week.”
Here’s what you need to understand about Iran’s nuclear initiatives.
How did Iran’s nuclear program reach this point?
Iran's nuclear development started with help from the United States. In 1957, under President Eisenhower's "Atoms for Peace" initiative, the U.S. aided the launch of Iran's atomic energy program while the two countries were allies. By the 1970s, Iran was developing nuclear reactors with support from both the U.S. and European nations, but this collaboration ended following the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Since then, the U.S. has observed with concern Iran's pursuit of nuclear capabilities, primarily in secrecy. The Natanz facility has been a central point of this anxiety. In the early 2000s, it was disclosed as part of a hidden network of nuclear sites that Iran had not revealed to international inspectors.
Iran claims its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, focusing on energy generation and medical research. The country is also a signatory to the UN's Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which mandates that members refrain from developing nuclear weapons. However, international monitoring agencies have raised alarms about Iran's uranium enrichment to levels considerably beyond what is necessary for civilian applications and its hiding of significant facilities.
Tensions heightened in 2018 when President Donald Trump exited the Iran nuclear agreement established under President Barack Obama, which had curtailed much of Iran's enrichment activities, limited its uranium stockpile, and subjected its facilities to strict international oversight. Trump criticized the agreement as "a disaster" and implemented new sanctions intended to severely damage the regime's economy.
In response, Iran progressively abandoned the limitations set by the agreement and increased its uranium enrichment. It also dismantled all the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) surveillance and monitoring equipment that had been installed. By 2024, Iran had restarted operations at Natanz and Fordow at an intensity not witnessed in over a decade, utilizing advanced centrifuges and enriching uranium to 60 percent, disturbingly near the 90 percent purity necessary for a nuclear weapon.
Here’s what to understand about Iran’s nuclear program.
How did Iran’s nuclear initiative progress to this stage?
Iran's path toward atomic energy began with backing from the United States. In 1957, the U.S. assisted in launching Iran’s atomic energy program under President Eisenhower’s "Atoms for Peace" initiative, during a time when both countries were allies. By the 1970s, Iran was engaged in developing nuclear reactors with support from the U.S. and Europe, but that collaboration fell apart following the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Since then, the U.S. has observed with concern as Iran sought nuclear capabilities mostly in secrecy. The Natanz facility has been a key point of that anxiety. In the early 2000s, it was uncovered as part of a clandestine network of nuclear sites that Iran had not disclosed to international inspectors.
Iran has maintained that its nuclear endeavor is for peaceful purposes, focusing on energy production and medical research. It is also a signatory to the UN’s Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which requires members not to develop nuclear weapons. However, international monitors have raised alarms regarding the nation's uranium enrichment to levels exceeding civilian needs and its lack of transparency about crucial facilities.
Tensions heightened when President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement in 2018, an accord established under President Barack Obama that had curtailed much of Iran’s enrichment activities, limited its uranium stockpile, and subjected its sites to stringent international inspections. Trump referred to the deal as “a disaster” and instead imposed new sanctions aimed at crippling Iran’s economy.
In retaliation, Iran progressively abandoned the deal's limitations and increased its uranium enrichment. It also took down all the surveillance and monitoring equipment set up by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). By 2024, Iran had resumed activities at Natanz and Fordow at a rate not witnessed in over a decade, utilizing more advanced centrifuges and enriching uranium to 60 percent—dangerously close to the 90 percent purity necessary for a nuclear weapon.
In recent weeks, Iranian authorities have acknowledged the construction of a third enrichment facility, escalating worries that Tehran might be moving its nuclear activities underground, making them less accessible to future negotiations or military actions.
“There are essentially just three major nuclear sites [in Iran],” states Jonathan Panikoff, who previously served as the deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East at the National Intelligence Council, referencing Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. “If efforts are made to eliminate these three sites, it would significantly hinder Iran's nuclear program.”
Is it possible for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, and if so, how quickly?
Currently, Iran has not developed a nuclear weapon. Nevertheless, experts suggest that the necessary infrastructure and expertise are already established.
Prior to Israel's airstrikes, the IAEA reported that Iran could purify enough uranium for a nuclear bomb in approximately a week. Consequently, within five months, Iran could potentially accumulate enough uranium for 22 nuclear weapons. However, experts emphasize that simply having uranium isn't sufficient for a functional nuclear weapon, and additional time would be required for its production.
Why the U.S. and Israel are against a nuclear Iran
Netanyahu views a nuclear Iran as an existential danger, asserting that Iranian leaders have explicitly called for the destruction of Israel and have supported groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas.
“Eighty years ago, Jews endured a Holocaust orchestrated by the Nazis. Today, the Jewish state is determined not to become a victim of a nuclear Holocaust instigated by the Iranian regime,” Netanyahu stated on Friday.
For Israel, the concern extends beyond a direct nuclear attack; they fear that Iran may act more aggressively in the region under the security of a nuclear deterrent.
Trump, a staunch supporter of Israel, has asserted that Iran “must not have a nuclear weapon” and described this moment as a potential “second chance” for Iran’s leaders to swiftly agree on limiting their nuclear program to prevent further devastation “before there is nothing left and salvage what was once known as the Iranian Empire.”
What damage has been done to Iran's nuclear program?
Israel’s strikes on Friday represented the first clear attack on Iran’s primary nuclear infrastructure. While the long-term impact on Iran’s nuclear program remains uncertain, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi informed the U.N. Security Council on Friday that the Natanz facility, crucial to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, was destroyed in these strikes. Other significant nuclear sites were not immediately targeted, although Grossi later mentioned that “Iranian authorities are notifying us of attacks on two additional facilities: the Fordow fuel enrichment plant and Isfahan.”
According to state-affiliated media, several high-ranking Iranian military officials, including six nuclear scientists and security personnel responsible for safeguarding the nuclear sites, were killed in the strikes.
However, analysts point out that Iran likely still has access to much of its expertise and equipment. Completely dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure would probably necessitate an ongoing operation involving not just air strikes but also cyber warfare, intelligence activities, and potentially ground troops.
Nevertheless, the deeply buried Fordow facility—located nearly half a mile within a mountain—may be out of reach for Israel’s existing munitions. Only the U.S. is thought to have the most advanced bunker-buster bombs capable of effectively penetrating such facilities, according to Panikoff.
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