Israel's struggle with Iran may seem like an unequal contest at first glance—a country of nine million pitted against a Middle Eastern heavyweight with a population of 88 million.
However, Israel's powerful and advanced military capabilities—largely, though not solely, supported by the United States—allow it to dominate a significantly larger adversary.
What has Israel accomplished thus far?
Israel claims it has established aerial superiority over Tehran. The air battle has been heavily one-sided, with no indication that Iran's outdated fighter jets have even taken to the skies.
Israel's fleet of modern aircraft from the US has effectively dropped precision-guided munitions at close range, seemingly without fear of interception.
Much of the danger posed by Iran's air defenses was neutralized during a previous Israeli strike in October, which employed longer-range "stand-off" weapons to hit Iran's S300 missile systems.
In the last few days, Israel's air force has persistently focused on taking out ground-based radar and missile launchers. Even before the onset of the assault, Israel had intelligence operatives positioned within Iran, ready to disrupt any defensive measures.
Mossad agents utilized drones covertly transported into the country to target the remnants of Iran's air defense systems.
Israeli strikes also eliminated several members of Iran's high command, further diminishing the nation’s ability to respond.
Is Iran still capable of retaliating?
Before the onset of Israel's strikes, the US characterized Iran as possessing the "largest ballistic missile arsenal" in the Middle East.
Estimates range from 2,000 to 3,000 missiles. Some of these, along with their manufacturing facilities, have already been targeted by Israel. The IDF reports that it has eliminated one-third of Iran's surface-to-surface launch platforms.
Despite this, Tehran has continued to launch missile barrages towards Israel, with some missiles successfully breaching its advanced air defence systems.
According to the Israeli military, it has now neutralized a third of Iran's surface-to-surface launchers. However, while Iran's missile capabilities have undoubtedly been diminished, they have not been entirely eradicated. This arsenal continues to pose the most significant direct risk to Israel.
In addition to Israel's assaults, Iran still retains numerous short-range air defence missiles.
Justin Bronk, from the defence think tank RUSI, noted that although Israel may now assert control of the air over Tehran, it has yet to achieve air dominance, and the danger from short-range missiles persists.
Iran has long supported Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, providing them with military expertise, weapons, and advanced technology.
However, Israeli actions over the past two years have significantly weakened their capacity to threaten Israel at its borders: Hamas has nearly been obliterated in Gaza, and Hezbollah's effectiveness has diminished to the point where it has refrained from retaliating against Israel’s assaults on its benefactor.
Though the Houthis are situated further away in Yemen, they have still managed to launch sporadic missile attacks on Israel.
They weathered a prolonged US bombing campaign earlier this year and successfully shot down several US Reaper drones using short-range surface-to-air missiles.
Could other nations become involved?
Iran can target Western interests in the region. Iranian-funded militant factions in Iraq have attacked Western military installations in the area. The US and UK are preparing for potential escalation.
Currently, about 100 UK personnel are stationed in Baghdad alongside American forces. This concern for their safety is one reason British Prime Minister Kier Starmer recently dispatched additional RAF Typhoon jets to Cyprus.
US and U.K. military personnel and ships are also positioned in Bahrain. The longer the conflict persists, the higher the danger for Western troops in the area.
Iran still retains the ability to disrupt one of the world's major shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz. While it may not appear strategically wise for Tehran to escalate the conflict at this moment, it remains within their capacity to do so if they wish.
Can Israel accomplish its objectives?
Israel currently holds a strategic advantage, but the ongoing military operation greatly relies on support from the United States.
It receives billions of dollars in military assistance from the US annually. The majority of the munitions deployed from their American-made aircraft have been supplied by the US. Even some of the interceptor missiles used in its Iron Dome defense system are manufactured in the US.
The "bunker-busting" bombs that Israel has utilized against Iran's underground nuclear facilities are primarily sourced from the US. President Donald Trump has been supportive of their usage, although reports indicate that he rejected Israeli intentions to target Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
Additionally, the US has not granted Israel access to a crucial weapon that would likely be necessary to penetrate Iran's underground nuclear site at Fordow— the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000-pound (13,600 kg) bomb, which can only be delivered using US B2 strategic bombers.
Even with ongoing military assistance from the US, there will be constraints on what Israel can achieve. While air power may disrupt Iran's nuclear advancements, it cannot completely dismantle them. The aspirations of Israel to overthrow the Iranian government appear to be quite implausible.
Air strikes can induce fear, chaos, and destruction. However, considering Libya in 2011 or Israel's ongoing operations in Gaza, they seldom lead to a definitive victory.
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