Is the relationship between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin derailing?
A well-known Russian newspaper believes so. It used trains as a metaphor to depict the current state of US-Russian relations.
"A direct collision appears inevitable," stated the tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets recently.
"The Trump train and the Putin train are barreling toward one another.
"And neither is planning to veer off course or halt and reverse."
For the 'Putin train', it’s full speed ahead, with the so-called 'Special Military Operation': Russia's conflict in Ukraine. The Kremlin leader has shown no indication of wanting to end hostilities and announce a long-term ceasefire.
At the same time, the 'Trump locomotive' is intensifying efforts to compel Moscow to halt the conflict: issuing deadlines, ultimatums, warnings of further sanctions against Russia, and significant tariffs on Russia's trade allies, such as India and China.
Additionally, there are the two US nuclear submarines that President Trump asserts have been moved nearer to Russia.
When the conversation shifts from locomotives to nuclear submarines, you can tell things are getting serious.
But does this indicate that the White House is truly on a "collision course" with the Kremlin regarding Ukraine?
Or could the visit to Moscow this week by Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, suggest that despite all the theatrics, a potential agreement between the US and Russia to cease the fighting is still achievable?
A warm beginning after Trump's return
In the initial weeks of Trump's second term, relations between Moscow and Washington seemed poised for a revival.
No sign of a direct confrontation. Quite the opposite. At times, it appeared as though Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump were on the same route, heading in a unified direction. In February, the United States supported Russia at the United Nations by opposing a European-initiated resolution that condemned Russia's "aggression" in Ukraine.
During a phone conversation that month, the two leaders discussed the possibility of visiting each other's nations. It felt as though a summit between Putin and Trump could take place at any moment.
During this time, the Trump administration was applying pressure on Kyiv instead of Moscow, and instigating conflicts with traditional US allies like Canada and Denmark. In speeches and television interviews, American officials expressed strong criticism of NATO and European leaders.
All of this was pleasing to the Kremlin.
"Currently, America shares more similarities with Russia than Washington does with Brussels or Kyiv," said political scientist Konstantin Blokhin from the Centre for Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, as quoted in the Izvestia newspaper in March.
The following month, the same publication was boasting:
"The Trump supporters are revolutionaries. They are dismantlers of the system. They deserve support for this. The unity of the West has disintegrated. Geopolitically, it is no longer an alliance. Trumpism has rapidly and decisively undermined the Transatlantic consensus."
In the meantime, Donald Trump's representative, Steve Witkoff, became a frequent visitor to Russia. He made four trips within a little over two months, engaging in lengthy discussions with Vladimir Putin. After one of their meetings, the Kremlin leader gifted him a portrait of Donald Trump to take back to the White House.
President Trump reportedly felt "clearly touched" by this gesture.
However, President Trump was seeking more than just a painting from Moscow. He aimed for President Putin to agree to an unconditional and comprehensive ceasefire in Ukraine.
Trump's mounting irritation
Believing that Russia currently has the upper hand on the battlefield, Vladimir Putin has hesitated to cease hostilities, despite his assertion that Moscow is dedicated to a diplomatic resolution.
This has led to Donald Trump's rising exasperation with the Kremlin.
In the past few weeks, he has denounced Russia's unyielding assaults on Ukrainian cities as "appalling," "shameful," and accused President Putin of speaking "a lot of nonsense" regarding Ukraine.
Last month, Donald Trump issued a 50-day deadline to President Putin to put an end to the conflict, threatening sanctions and tariffs if he did not comply. He later shortened that deadline to just ten days. This new deadline is set to expire at the end of this week. Up to now, there is no indication that Vladimir Putin will respond to the pressure from Washington.
On the other hand, how much pressure does Vladimir Putin truly feel?
"Given that Donald Trump has altered several deadlines and changed his stance multiple times, I don't think Putin considers him a serious threat," argues Nina Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs at The New School, based in New York City.
"Putin is likely to continue fighting for as long as possible, or until Ukraine declares, 'We've had enough, and we are open to your terms.'
"I believe Putin is in the Kremlin convinced that he is realizing the ambitions of Russian tsars and later leaders like Joseph Stalin, by demonstrating to the West that Russia demands respect."
A resolution remains achievable
From the scenario I've outlined, it may seem like a direct clash between Putin and Trump is unavoidable.
However, that isn’t necessarily the case.
Donald Trump views himself as an exceptional negotiator and, evidently, he has not abandoned his efforts to strike a deal with Vladimir Putin.
Steve Witkoff is expected to return to Russia this week for discussions with the Kremlin leader. The nature of the proposal he might present is unknown. Yet some analysts in Moscow forecast that the approach will lean more towards incentive than punishment. It was also noted that President Trump remarked on Sunday that Russia "appears to be quite adept at evading sanctions."
On Monday, Ivan Loshkarev, an associate professor of political theory at MGIMO University in Moscow, mentioned to Izvestia that Mr. Witkoff could potentially offer appealing cooperation proposals to Russia that would be available following an agreement on Ukraine.
Could this be sufficient to convince the Kremlin to pursue peace after three and a half years of conflict?
There's no certainty about that.
After all, so far in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has not deviated from his maximalist demands regarding territory, Ukraine's neutrality, and the prospective size of the Ukrainian military.
Donald Trump desires a deal, while Vladimir Putin aims for victory.
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