Mapping the Ukraine-Russia War: Insights and Developments

Mapping the Ukraine-Russia War: Insights and Developments

Combat has been ongoing in Ukraine since Russia initiated a full-scale invasion over three years ago. In the last year, Russian troops have gradually increased the territory under their control, primarily in eastern Ukraine, and have persisted with their recent wave of airstrikes on Kyiv and various other cities.

As US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin prepare to meet on Friday to discuss a resolution to the conflict, here’s a summary of recent key developments and the current situation in Ukraine.

Russia pushes onward in the east  

In eastern Ukraine, Moscow's military efforts have been advancing steadily through the vast open fields of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, commonly referred to as the Donbas, encircling and overpowering local villages and towns.  

The objective has been to secure complete control over this area, along with two additional regions to the west—Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Shortly after the invasion began, Russia conducted referendums to support its attempts to annex all these regions, similar to its annexation of Crimea in 2014; however, it has never fully controlled them.

Mapping the Ukraine-Russia War: Insights and Developments

Former President Trump indicated that any agreement for peace might entail "some exchange of territories," and it is thought that one of Putin's conditions is for Kyiv to relinquish the regions of the Donbas it currently holds.

In a conference with reporters on Tuesday, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine would not accept any suggestions to abandon the Donbas, arguing that such a concession could serve as a catalyst for further aggression by Russia.

Summer offensive focuses on critical towns  

A Russian summer offensive had been moving forward at a slow pace until troops launched an unexpected drive near the eastern town of Dobropillya, covering a distance of 10km (six miles) in a brief timeframe.  

This swift maneuver occurred just north of Pokrovsk, which has been identified as the most intense area on the front line during this phase of the war.  

Ukrainian forces have consistently contended with greater Russian manpower along the front lines throughout the conflict, but reported deficits in the east have made this important Russian objective increasingly susceptible.  

Experts are worried that the thousands of Ukrainians stationed in the city may be at risk of being surrounded by advancing Russian troops.

Mapping the Ukraine-Russia War: Insights and Developments

Specialists at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report that Russian forces have begun targeting the town directly.  

Zelensky has minimized the significance of the recent developments, asserting that Moscow’s goal is to generate propaganda suggesting that "Russia is making progress, advancing, while Ukraine is experiencing setbacks" ahead of Putin's meeting with Trump.  

Combat is also persisting around the adjacent town of Chasiv Yar, although Ukraine has rejected Russian assertions that it has fallen.

Very little is left of Chasiv Yar after 16 months of artillery fire, ground assaults, and drone strikes, but controlling the elevated position it occupies would enable Russia to target major towns in the Donetsk region that remain under Ukrainian control, such as Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk.

Russian offensive north of Kharkiv  

Further north, Russia has been advancing toward Kupyansk in the eastern Kharkiv region, as part of its strategy to take control of the entire Luhansk area and encircle northern Donetsk.  

In addition to the eastern front, Russia initiated what the ISW characterizes as its "secondary main effort" in May 2024 by crossing the border north of Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv.  

Several villages have been captured, prompting thousands of civilians to evacuate.  

Recent analysis by ISW of the region indicates that Russia has made progress near Vovchansk and Lyptsi as it seeks to establish a buffer zone within Ukraine's northern borders and move within artillery range of Kharkiv.

Mapping the Ukraine-Russia War: Insights and Developments

Putin claims he desires this buffer zone to safeguard Russia, following the capture of a significant area by Ukrainian forces in northern Kursk last summer. With support from North Korean troops, Russian forces ultimately managed to reclaim the territory. 

The Russians then advanced into Ukraine but soon became entangled in combat over minor border villages, which continue to see frequent shifts in control even now. Unless substantial reinforcements are provided, it seems improbable that Russian troops will make considerable progress.

Mapping the Ukraine-Russia War: Insights and Developments

Alongside the counter-offensive in the Kursk region, Ukraine has targeted air bases deep within Russia. One such attack utilized 100 drones aimed at nuclear-capable long-range bombers.

The Russian Defence Ministry acknowledged that attacks took place in five different regions of Russia - Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur - but claimed that aircraft were only damaged in Murmansk and Irkutsk, with defensive actions successful in the other areas.

Kyiv asserts that the drone assault caused $7 billion (£5.2 billion) in damage to the Russian military. Verification of either side's assertions has proven difficult.

More recently, Moscow accused Ukrainian drones of igniting a large oil depot fire near the Black Sea resort town of Sochi, which was the host for the 2014 Winter Olympics.

In the meantime, Russia has persistently bombed Ukrainian cities, again targeting a crucial bridge in the southern city of Kherson for the second time within days and resulting in 31 fatalities during an attack on Kyiv on July 31.

Ceasefire negotiations

Since Trump assumed the presidency at the beginning of 2025, the US has been working towards ending the war, now in its fourth year, through discussions.

There have been no significant advancements in talks, prompting Trump to threaten additional severe tariffs on Russia, specifically focusing on its oil and other exports, should it fail to reach a ceasefire agreement.

The deadline passed on the very day it was revealed that Trump and Putin are scheduled to meet for further discussions this week.

At the end of April, relations between the Trump administration and Ukraine's President Zelensky appeared to have improved, following the signing of a long-anticipated agreement for sharing profits from future sales of Ukraine's mineral and energy reserves.

This deal is designed to provide an economic incentive for the US - which remains the largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine - to maintain its investment in the nation's defense and reconstruction while also addressing Washington's concerns regarding the extent of aid already provided.

Mapping the Ukraine-Russia War: Insights and Developments

An investment fund will also be established to facilitate Ukraine's economic recovery following the war.

Three years of conflict have transpired since Russia's large-scale invasion began with a barrage of missile strikes targeting cities across Ukraine in the early hours of 24 February 2022.

Russian ground forces advanced swiftly, gaining control over extensive areas of Ukraine within a few weeks, and reached the outskirts of Kyiv.

Russian troops were heavily bombarding Kharkiv and had seized territory in the eastern and southern regions up to Kherson, while encircling the port city of Mariupol.

Mapping the Ukraine-Russia War: Insights and Developments

They encountered intense resistance from Ukrainian forces on nearly all fronts and faced significant logistical issues, with Russian troops lacking motivation and suffering from shortages of food, water, and ammunition.

Ukrainian troops were also quick to utilize Western-supplied weaponry, such as the Nlaw anti-tank system, which was highly effective in countering the Russian push.

By October 2022, the situation had shifted dramatically, and after failing to capture Kyiv, Russia completely withdrew from the northern region. In the following month, Ukrainian troops reclaimed the southern city of Kherson.

Since then, most of the fighting has occurred in eastern Ukraine, where Russian forces have gradually made small advances over several months—military analysts estimate that between 165,000 and 235,000 Russian servicemen have perished since the start of the invasion.

Ukraine last revised its casualty numbers in December 2024, when President Zelensky reported 43,000 Ukrainian military deaths among soldiers and officers. Western experts consider this figure to be an underestimation.

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