President Vladimir V. Putin has consistently expressed his desire to meet with President Trump.
He believes that such a meeting could be more beneficial for him in achieving a victory in the ongoing war against Ukraine than just advancements made on the battlefield.
Experts who analyze Mr. Putin, along with individuals familiar with him, have indicated from the war's onset that his primary objective appears to be negotiating a peace agreement that fulfills his geopolitical ambitions, rather than merely capturing specific territories.
They argue that the U.S. president is in the best position to facilitate these objectives, which include keeping Ukraine from joining NATO and halting the alliance's future enlargement. This context likely explains Mr. Putin's intense focus on accommodating Mr. Trump and preventing a falling out with Washington, even as the American president has become increasingly frustrated with Putin's reluctance to agree to a cease-fire.
“Putin seeks to maintain Trump as a potential tool for a transition to peace,” remarked Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst in Moscow. “Trump is crucial in fulfilling Russia's requirements.”
This likely accounts for Mr. Putin's repeated assertions over several months about wanting a summit.
“It would probably be more beneficial for us to meet,” Mr. Putin stated regarding Mr. Trump in January, “and, considering the current realities, have a calm discussion about all areas of mutual interest for both the U.S. and Russia.”
The Kremlin confirmed on Thursday morning that Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump intend to meet in the upcoming days, following a meeting between Mr. Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Mr. Putin in Moscow, although no specific date for the summit has been established. Officials from both Russia and the U.S. indicated it might occur as soon as next week.
Mr. Trump informed European leaders of his plans to meet with Mr. Putin, after which he intended to hold a joint meeting with both Mr. Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. However, a Kremlin official stated on Thursday that Russia had not consented to a three-way conference.
“That possibility was simply mentioned by the American official during discussions at the Kremlin,” Yuri Ushakov, Mr. Putin’s foreign policy advisor, told journalists. He remarked that Moscow had “no comments” regarding the proposal for a three-way summit and that it had not been discussed “concretely” with Mr. Witkoff.
Shortly thereafter, Mr. Putin expressed that he was open to a meeting with Mr. Zelensky — something Ukraine's leader has consistently requested — but stressed that “certain conditions” need to be fulfilled before such a meeting occurs.
“Unfortunately, we are currently quite distant from those conditions,” Mr. Putin stated.
When a reporter in the Oval Office asked Mr. Trump whether Mr. Putin needed to meet with Mr. Zelensky in a trilateral session with him before meeting Mr. Putin, Mr. Trump replied, “No, he doesn’t,” as per a pool report.
In a statement on X, Mr. Zelensky mentioned that various meeting formats had been proposed.
“Ukraine is not reluctant to meet and anticipates a similar courageous stance from the Russian side,” he mentioned. “It is time to put an end to the war. Thanks to all those who are aiding us.”
Since beginning rapprochement with the Kremlin in January, the Trump administration had withheld agreement on a summit with Mr. Putin while seeking indications from the Kremlin that the Russian leader was genuinely committed to a cease-fire on the battlefield.
The White House's abrupt commitment to host a summit has raised doubts about what Mr. Putin may have agreed to during his discussions in Moscow with Mr. Witkoff on Wednesday.
The specifics of their conversation remain unclear. Mr. Ushakov informed reporters on Wednesday that Mr. Putin had sent certain “signals” to Mr. Witkoff regarding Ukraine, but the Kremlin aide did not elaborate.
One possibility is that Mr. Putin indicated greater flexibility regarding how land might be divided or exchanged in any agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
For several months, Russian diplomats have argued with their U.S. counterparts that Moscow should be granted full control over the four regions that the Kremlin claimed to have “annexed” from Ukraine in late 2022, despite large areas of this territory still being under Ukrainian control. U.S. negotiators have regarded this stance as unreasonable and viewed it as an indication that Moscow was not genuinely committed to reaching a resolution to the conflict.
Some experts have posited that Mr. Putin instructed envoys during discussions this year to adhere strictly to an uncompromising position, aiming to provoke a meeting between him and Mr. Trump. Russian officials might be hoping that a direct summit would give Mr. Putin a chance to influence Mr. Trump, who has traditionally shown sympathy towards Russia, to align more with the Russian leader's perspectives on what he describes as the “root causes of the conflict.”
Individuals close to the Kremlin, along with political analysts, indicate that Mr. Putin's priorities—such as preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, restricting its military capacity, and establishing a government in Kyiv that is more favorable to Moscow—are more significant to him than the actual territories Russia ultimately controls.
“What matters most to Putin is NATO and the firm assurances that Ukraine will not become a NATO member and that NATO countries will not establish a military presence in Ukraine, in addition to a series of political demands directed at Ukraine itself,” explained Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Eurasia Center. She noted that some of these demands might be subject to negotiation.
Moscow has not officially delineated the boundaries of the four “annexed” regions, which Ms. Stanovaya mentioned, indicating that there has always been some degree of flexibility regarding the territorial issue. She did not rule out the possibility that Russia could be willing to exchange certain areas.
Some experts believe that the regions of Ukraine under Russian control that have not been “annexed” would likely be proposed for exchange during negotiations. According to DeepState, a Ukrainian group that tracks the conflict through combat footage, Russia holds 1,719 square kilometers, or roughly 660 square miles, of Ukrainian territory in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions, neither of which has been formally “annexed” by Russia.
However, Ms. Stanovaya remarked, Mr. Putin “doesn’t maintain a preconceived plan.” “He focuses on the present. He understands what his ultimate goals are.”
In this instance, she stated, Mr. Putin seeks for Ukraine to cease being what he perceives as an “anti-Russia project” and to revert to Moscow’s sphere of influence.
“Ms. Stanovaya noted that he can either secure this through NATO assurances, meaning support from the West, or establish political dominance within Ukraine. It could be one, the other, or potentially both. Then we’ll see how things unfold. The issue of territory is quite secondary.”
Despite escalating warnings from the White House, there is little evidence that Mr. Putin has shifted from his hard-line objectives.
According to Feodor Voitolovsky, the director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, a research organization funded by the Russian government, a choice by Mr. Putin to reach a settlement instead of attempting to capture more of Ukraine should indeed be viewed as a concession.
“We could continue fighting, bide our time for a few more months, and achieve even greater and more significant outcomes in combat,” remarked Mr. Voitolovsky, who also holds positions on advisory boards for the Russian Foreign Ministry and Security Council.
While Russian military forces have made progress in Ukraine following the start of a summer offensive, they have incurred substantial losses and are far from taking complete control of the four “annexed” territories.
According to Ms. Stanovaya, Mr. Putin would prefer for Mr. Zelensky to surrender, with pressure coming from Mr. Trump, allowing Russian forces to cease hostilities. However, she mentions that the mindset of Russia's leader is, “we will attain our objectives at any cost,” no matter the economic or societal consequences.
“They are willing to engage in combat for years if necessary,” she pointed out. “Naturally, they would prefer not to.”
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