President Trump has dedicated the week to setting exceptionally low expectations for his crucial summit with Russia in Alaska on Friday. Few anticipate any significant advancements in ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, given the stark differences in their perspectives.
However, it appears both nations share at least one common sentiment. Simply having a meeting with Mr. Trump is a substantial achievement for President Vladimir V. Putin, as it pulls the Russian leader out of a state of diplomatic isolation and provides him with an opportunity to engage directly with the American president.
"Putin's trip to the U.S.A. signifies the complete failure of the entire idea of isolating Russia. Complete failure," exclaimed Kremlin-backed media following the announcement of the hastily organized summit last weekend.
For Russia, “this represents a significant advancement even if little is agreed upon,” remarked Sergei Mikheyev, a pro-war Russian political analyst frequently featured on state television.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, excluded from the discussions in Alaska regarding his country's future, has reached a similar realization, stating to reporters on Tuesday: “Putin will come out on top here. He is looking for, pardon my wording, pictures. He desires a photo opportunity with President Trump.”
However, this is about more than just a photo opportunity. Beyond rehabilitating Russia's outcast reputation in the West, the summit has created rifts within NATO — a long-standing objective for Russia — and delayed Mr. Trump’s promise of imposing strict new sanctions. Just over two weeks ago, he declared that if Mr. Putin did not agree to a cease-fire by last Friday, he would take action against Moscow as well as nations like China and India that support Russia's military efforts by purchasing its oil and gas.
The deadline came and went with no respite in the conflict — the fighting has actually escalated as Russia advances with a summer campaign — and there have been no additional economic sanctions imposed on Russia.
“Rather than facing new sanctions, Putin was granted a summit,” remarked Ryhor Nizhnikau, a specialist on Russia and senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. “This represents a significant triumph for Putin regardless of the summit's outcome.”
Before Alaska, only the leaders of the small nations of Slovakia and Hungary had met with Mr. Putin after he initiated the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and subsequently faced an international arrest warrant for war crimes in March 2023.
Many European officials have been astonished by Mr. Trump’s choice to convene a summit regarding Ukraine that did not include Mr. Zelensky, prompting the continent’s leaders to urge the president not to negotiate a deal without Ukraine’s involvement.
To address those concerns, Mr. Trump held a video conference with European leaders, including Mr. Zelensky, on Wednesday. The European leaders reported that they had developed a coordinated approach with President Trump for his discussion with Mr. Putin, emphasizing that any peace agreement must begin with a cease-fire and involve Ukraine in the negotiations.
According to Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a peace agreement concerning Ukraine is not Mr. Putin’s actual aim for the summit. “His goal is to gain Trump’s backing in promoting the Russian proposals,” she stated.
According to her, for Mr. Putin, this meeting serves as a "strategic move to shift the circumstances to his advantage" and to soothe the rising frustration from the White House regarding the Kremlin’s delays in agreeing to a cease-fire.
On the night before the summit on Thursday, the Kremlin indicated it intended to bring additional topics beyond Ukraine into the discussions, such as the possibility of reviving economic relations with the United States and talks about a new nuclear arms agreement. This approach to arms aligns with Russia's ongoing strategy to depict the conflict in Ukraine as part of a larger East-West confrontation.
Mr. Trump has referred to his meeting with Mr. Putin as merely a “feel-out meeting,” implying he would exit quickly if a peace agreement appears unlikely.
Neither the White House nor the Kremlin has disclosed the type of peace agreement they are pursuing. However, Mr. Trump has mentioned it might include “some land-swapping,” an area he believes he can negotiate effectively due to his background as a former New York real estate developer.
Mr. Zelensky has dismissed any idea of land swapping, asserting that he lacks the constitutional authority in Ukraine to relinquish any territories. Agreeing to such a proposal would likely lead to a significant political crisis in Kyiv and further Mr. Putin’s long-held goal of undermining Mr. Zelensky.
Ukraine’s concession of its eastern territories would undermine Mr. Trump’s aspirations for the U.S. to eventually gain from Ukraine's rare earth mineral supplies, most of which are located in areas that Russia asserts as its own.
“The most concerning scenario for Ukraine and, more generally, is if Putin proposes an offer that the United States finds acceptable but that Zelensky cannot accept domestically,” stated Samuel Charap, a political scientist and co-author of a book about Ukraine and post-Soviet Eurasia.
This situation, he noted, could drive Mr. Trump back to the openly confrontational position he adopted on Ukraine in February, where he criticized Mr. Zelensky at the White House for not expressing enough gratitude for U.S. support and for continuing a conflict that he believed Ukraine could not win.
Recently, Russia has also rejected the notion of a land exchange where its forces would withdraw from some of the territories captured during the conflict.
“Any territory that a Russian soldier has occupied will certainly be maintained by Russia,” said Kostantin Zatulin, a prominent lawmaker in President Putin’s party, during a recent state television appearance. He also stated that this was Russia’s “red line.”
The Kremlin has not shown any intention of accepting anything less than a significant portion of Ukraine, refusing to make any compromises.
“We are certain that Russia's stance remains the same,” Lithuania’s defense minister, Dovile Sakaliene, mentioned in an interview. She continued, “They do not understand the idea of a cease-fire, and view any concession as a reason to increase their aggression.”
Mr. Putin, an experienced manipulator, will surely strive in Alaska to portray Mr. Zelensky as a stubborn hindrance to peace.
“Trump believes he can negotiate a deal by looking into Putin’s eyes and relies on his skills as a negotiator,” stated Mr. Nizhnikau, a Finnish expert on Russia. “The issue is that Putin has been engaging in this kind of negotiation for his entire life and approaches this summit intending to manipulate Trump.”
During Mr. Trump’s previous summit with his Russian counterpart in 2018 in Helsinki, Finland, which took place during his first term, he demonstrated his tendency to accept Putin’s interpretation of events. At that time, he expressed that he had no reason to question the Russian president’s denials of interference in the 2016 presidential election.
This year, Mr. Trump implied that Ukraine was to blame for the invasion of its own land and declined to align with America’s usual Western allies in supporting a United Nations resolution that condemned Russia’s actions. On Sunday evening, Mr. Zelensky expressed concern that Mr. Trump could be easily “misled.”
Mr. Trump reacted defensively on Monday to Mr. Zelensky's declaration that he could not concede any territory. “He’s authorized to go to war and kill everyone, yet he needs permission for a land swap?” Mr. Trump retorted. “There will be some land exchanges happening.”
Nevertheless, Mr. Charap, the political scientist, stated, “Putin shouldn’t start assuming everything is settled just yet.” Even with his strong control over Russia’s political environment and major media platforms, he faces his own internal issues, particularly regarding land, especially if the type of exchange suggested by Mr. Trump goes forward. “Territory is a sensitive subject politically, both for Ukraine and for Russia.”
After years of fueling nationalist sentiments within Russia, Mr. Putin has allowed a vigorous subculture of pro-war bloggers and commentators on television to flourish. When a prominent host of a weekly news program on state television expressed joy on Sunday that the discussion in Alaska could signal a conclusion to what Moscow refers to as the “special military operation” in Ukraine, nationalist bloggers reacted with outrage.
One blogger seethed, “It seems Mr. Putin has chosen to give up.”
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