The Theater of War: Inside Taiwan's Realistic Defense Drills
Kinmen Island's Mock Invasion Scenarios
Air raid sirens pierced the Friday morning calm on Kinmen, a tiny Taiwanese island just kilometers from mainland China's coast. Government workers switched off lights and dove under desks, while others fled to underground parking garages. At the local hospital, medical staff rushed to treat bloodied casualties staggering through the doors.
The blood was fake. The casualties were volunteer actors. But the preparation was deadly serious.
This elaborate theater of war represents Taiwan's most comprehensive civil defense initiative in decades, as the self-governing island rehearses for what many experts believe could become an inevitable confrontation with Beijing, according to recent analysis by the Institute for the Study of War. The mandatory drills, held across Taiwan in recent months, mark a dramatic escalation in the island's defense preparations under President William Lai's administration.
"We were on the mountain gathering wild vegetables, then we saw them shooting cannons and hitting Kinmen," recalls 77-year-old Yang Peiling, who witnessed Chinese forces shelling the island during the 1958 Second Taiwan Strait Crisis. "Everything turned red." Decades later, Ms. Yang now welcomes Chinese day-trippers at her traditional snack shop, embodying the complex relationship that defines cross-strait tensions today.
Volunteer Actors and Fake Casualties: Building Civil Preparedness
The Urban Resilience Exercise, one of Taiwan's largest civil defense drills ever conducted, transformed major cities into war zones over several days. In downtown Taipei, emergency teams practiced evacuating injured civilians from buildings "hit by missiles," complete with smoke effects and debris. Medical teams established triage centers in parking lots, wrapping wounds and setting up IV drips under military-style tents.
Every major urban area took turns conducting air raid exercises. Hotels, shops, and restaurants halted operations. Train and plane passengers were prohibited from boarding or disembarking. Violators faced potential fines, underscoring the government's commitment to building a culture of preparedness.
The realism extends beyond visual effects. Participants practice lowering themselves down buildings, putting out fires, and coordinating mass evacuations. These exercises represent a fundamental shift from Taiwan's previous approach to civil defense, moving from abstract planning to hands-on simulation of invasion scenarios.
Military Modernization Under President Lai's Leadership
Han Kuang 2025: Taiwan's Largest Ever War Games
Taiwan's military transformation under President Lai reflects an urgent recognition of evolving threats. The annual Han Kuang war games, traditionally scripted exercises, have been completely overhauled to feature realistic simulations of Chinese invasion scenarios, as detailed in Al Jazeera's comprehensive coverage.
The 2025 edition marked a watershed moment, with 22,000 reservist troops participating, representing a 50% increase from the previous year. For the first time, exercises focused extensively on urban warfare, with soldiers practicing combat operations in mass transit systems, on expressways, and in city suburbs.
In Taipei, military units practiced loading missiles onto attack helicopters in riverside parks and transformed schools into battlefield tank repair stations. The exercises addressed modern warfare realities, including grey zone operations and disinformation campaigns, reflecting lessons learned from conflicts in Ukraine and elsewhere.
"The annual Han Kuang war games have been revamped to replace scripted exercises with more realistic simulations," according to defense officials. This shift represents acknowledgment that any future conflict with China would likely involve protracted urban combat rather than conventional beach landings.
Defense Spending Surge: From 3% to 5% of GDP by 2030
Taiwan's military modernization extends far beyond exercises. The island plans to increase defense spending by 23% next year to NT$949.5 billion ($31 billion), surpassing 3% of GDP following sustained US pressure to invest more heavily in defense capabilities.
President Lai has pledged to increase military spending to 5% of GDP by 2030, a commitment that would place Taiwan among the world's highest defense spenders relative to economic output. This dramatic increase reflects both external pressure and internal recognition of mounting threats.
The spending surge addresses chronic problems that have plagued Taiwan's military for decades. Extended mandatory conscription now comes with increased pay and benefits, while training programs have been substantially upgraded. These changes target the "strawberry soldier" syndrome – a derogatory term previously applied to Taiwanese troops perceived as soft due to inadequate training and low morale.
The Credibility Gap: Public Skepticism vs. US Warnings
65% of Taiwanese Doubt Invasion Within 5 Years
Despite escalating tensions and government preparations, a striking disconnect exists between official warnings and public perception. According to a May 2025 survey by the military-affiliated Institute for National Defense and Strategic Research (INDSR), 65% of Taiwanese believe a Chinese attack is unlikely within the next five years.
"The chances of a Chinese invasion are low," says Ben, a Taipei finance professional. "If they really wanted to attack us, they would have done so already." This sentiment reflects widespread skepticism about invasion scenarios despite increasingly aggressive Chinese military posturing.
The credibility gap persists even as US officials warn that China's threat to Taiwan is "imminent" and that Beijing is preparing its military for invasion capabilities by 2027, according to recent Pentagon assessments. Defense experts argue this disconnect between official assessments and public opinion represents one of Taiwan's greatest vulnerabilities.
Some residents have shifted their perspectives following global events. "Before the Ukraine War, I didn't care about this prospect of a Chinese attack," says Ray Yang, an IT worker. "But after Ukraine happened, I started to really believe this could happen."
"Boy Who Cried Wolf" Syndrome After Decades of Threats
Taiwan's threat perception is complicated by decades of Chinese intimidation that never materialized into a full-scale invasion. "After facing decades of threats, there is now a sense of Beijing as the boy who cried wolf," explains Wen-ti Sung, a political scientist with the Australian National University's Taiwan Center.
"Psychologically, you can't take every threat seriously without going insane. So people tune out to prioritize their mental health," Sung notes. This psychological adaptation has created a population increasingly immune to alarm, even as military analysts assess the threat as more serious than ever.
The skepticism is particularly pronounced on Kinmen, where economic ties with mainland China have flourished. Much of the island's economy now depends on Chinese tourists taking ferries from nearby Xiamen. "China won't attack us now," argues shop owner Yang Peiling. "We are all Chinese, we are all one family. Why would they hurt us ordinary folk?"
This economic interdependence shapes threat perceptions across Taiwan, where many residents view invasion as economically irrational for Beijing. As one souvenir shop assistant observes: "If they blow up our buildings and kill us, what's the point of claiming a land like that? They would gain a Taiwan that has nothing."
China's Grey Zone Tactics and Taiwan's Response
Cybersecurity Threats and Disinformation Campaigns
While Taiwan prepares for kinetic warfare, China has already launched what many consider a subtler form of invasion through information warfare and economic coercion. Beijing's approach reflects Xi's broader strategy of making other nations "pay for China's mistakes" through economic and political pressure.
Taiwan has become the world's most targeted location for foreign government-initiated disinformation campaigns, according to research by Sweden's V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg, detailed in academic studies on cross-strait information warfare. These operations represent sophisticated attempts to influence public opinion and undermine support for independence-leaning politicians.
The disinformation threat extends beyond social media manipulation. According to Taiwan officials, Beijing has invested heavily in influence operations targeting the island's economy, culture, media, and government institutions. Several Taiwanese soldiers and military officials have been jailed for allegedly spying on Beijing's behalf, while members of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party have faced espionage charges.
Economic Coercion and Influence Operations
China's influence operations extend to Taiwan's entertainment industry, social media landscape, and civil society. Taiwanese celebrities friendly to China, social media influencers, and Chinese spouses of Taiwanese citizens have come under increased scrutiny from security services, with some deported or forced to leave.
President Lai has backed controversial grassroots movements aimed at removing opposition politicians perceived as too close to Beijing. These efforts reflect growing concern about Chinese infiltration of Taiwan's political system, though critics argue they risk undermining democratic norms.
The economic dimension of Chinese pressure cannot be understated. Beijing officially encourages trade and cultural ties while simultaneously wielding economic leverage to influence political outcomes. This dual approach creates a complex environment where economic benefits and political pressures intersect in ways that shape public opinion about cross-strait relations.
International Stakes: Lessons from Ukraine and Global Implications
US Military Support and Alliance Commitments
Taiwan's defense preparations occur within a broader context of shifting international alliances and commitments. While the United States remains bound by law to preserve Taiwan's security, polling suggests Taiwanese confidence in American support has waned during recent political transitions, as analyzed in recent policy assessments.
The Ukraine conflict has provided both cautionary lessons and strategic insights for Taiwan's defense planning. Ukrainian resistance tactics, particularly in urban environments, have influenced Taiwan's military exercises and civil defense protocols. The importance of international support and weapons supplies, as demonstrated in Ukraine's fight against the Russian invasion, has reinforced Taiwan's efforts to strengthen ties with its democratic allies.
However, some experts argue that Taiwan's situation differs fundamentally from Ukraine's. "China's current military strength does not match America's," notes Shen Ming-shih, a defense analyst with the INDSR. This assessment underlies Taiwan's continued reliance on US security guarantees, even as the island builds independent defensive capabilities.
Semiconductor Industry's Strategic Importance
Taiwan's outsized role in global semiconductor production adds another dimension to its strategic importance. The island produces advanced chips essential for everything from smartphones to military systems, creating what many analysts describe as "silicon shield" protection.
"There is a belief that the international community would come to Taiwan's aid given its outsized importance in the global semiconductor industry," explains defense analyst Shen Ming-shih. This economic leverage represents both Taiwan's greatest asset and potentially its greatest vulnerability, as any conflict would disrupt critical global supply chains.
The semiconductor industry's strategic value has influenced both Chinese calculations about invasion costs and international commitments to Taiwan's defense. However, experts warn that economic importance alone cannot guarantee security in an era of increasing geopolitical competition.
The debate over Taiwan's future continues to evolve as military preparations intensify alongside persistent public skepticism. Whether China will ultimately choose invasion over other forms of pressure remains the existential question that shapes every aspect of Taiwan's security planning.
As President Lai often states: "By preparing for war, we are avoiding war." The success of this deterrence strategy may ultimately depend on bridging the gap between official warnings and public perception while building genuine defensive capabilities that make any invasion prohibitively costly for Beijing.
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