At the end of last month, Russian President Vladimir V. Putin confronted a significant challenge: he was close to losing President Trump, the only Western leader potentially inclined to assist him in Ukraine and to fulfill his longstanding objective of disrupting the European security framework.
Following months of urging Mr. Putin to cease hostilities, Mr. Trump became frustrated with unproductive phone conversations and discussions and started to issue demands. Even more troubling for Mr. Putin, Mr. Trump seemed to have repaired his relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, despite a confrontation earlier this year that had pleased Moscow.
It was uncertain whether Mr. Trump would be able or willing to enforce the threats he had made regarding imposing heavy tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, or what genuine effect such actions might have on Moscow. Nevertheless, Mr. Trump's ultimatum for Mr. Putin to end the conflict was rapidly approaching, indicating a likely deepening divide between the White House and the Kremlin.
Mr. Putin adjusted his approach just a bit.
Although Russian officials had previously rejected the idea of negotiating territorial issues in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Russian leader gave an impression to Mr. Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, during a recent meeting at the Kremlin that Russia might now be open to discussing potential agreements regarding land.
“We’re going to regain some territory, and we’re going to exchange some,” Mr. Trump stated on Friday. “There will be some territorial exchanges that benefit both parties.”
By using terminology that resonates with Mr. Trump — the terminology of real estate — Mr. Putin managed to achieve something he has desired since January: a private meeting with the U.S. leader, without Mr. Zelensky being present, to present his case and negotiate a deal.
“It has been a very favorable week for Putin,” remarked Sam Greene, a scholar of Russian politics at the College of London. “He has successfully removed himself from a position of significant weakness. He has steered this entire process into something that aligns nearly perfectly with what he needed.”
Concurrently, friction between Washington and Kyiv has resurfaced.
Mr. Zelensky remarked on Saturday that the Ukrainian Constitution prohibits Kyiv from negotiating away the nation's territory. Mr. Trump initially informed European leaders that the meeting with Mr. Putin would be succeeded by a trilateral summit involving both Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelensky. However, the Kremlin quickly denied that such a commitment had been made. The White House moved forward regardless.
Most analysts doubt that the Russian leader will be satisfied with ending the conflict based solely on a property deal.
Mr. Putin has clearly stated that he desires a formal assurance that Ukraine will refrain from joining NATO or any other Western military alliances, will not host Western troops on its soil, and will not engage in military development that poses a threat to Russia — leaving Kyiv in a position of chronic vulnerability.
"The essential goal for Russia is to maintain dominance," remarked Mr. Greene.
Alexander Gabuev, the head of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, indicated that Mr. Putin would approach the upcoming summit on Friday in Alaska with multiple strategies in mind.
These options include striking a favorable agreement with Mr. Trump that the U.S. president imposes on Ukraine or securing a favorable deal with Mr. Trump that Mr. Zelensky rejects, leading the United States to disengage from Ukraine, according to Mr. Gabuev.
The third scenario, he remarked, involves the Russian leader persisting with his current strategy for the next 12 to 18 months, believing that Ukraine will deplete its military personnel at a quicker rate than the Russian war economy can weaken.
Mr. Putin is aware that Mr. Trump is open to proposals that few other American leaders would contemplate, which could aid Russia in fracturing Ukraine and creating divisions within the Western alliance.
“If you could persuade Trump to acknowledge Russia’s assertion to the majority of the territory it has seized, realizing that the Ukrainians and Europeans may not agree with this, you create a lasting divide between the U.S. and Europe,” stated Mr. Greene from Kings College London.
However, even with those desires, Mr. Putin is unlikely to cease hostilities for such concessions if it involves accepting a sovereign Ukraine with a robust military, allied with the West, capable of producing its own weapons, according to Mr. Gabuev.
“Trump presents a significant opportunity for him,” remarked Mr. Gabuev. “I believe he realizes that. However, he is not prepared to accept the consequences of Ukraine potentially being lost forever.”
Stefan Meister, a Russia expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, indicated that the two leaders would approach the summit with differing objectives — with Mr. Trump aiming to bring the conflict to an end and Mr. Putin focusing on a strategic realignment for Russia.
“For Putin, it’s genuinely about broader ambitions,” Mr. Meister noted. “It pertains to his legacy. It involves determining Russia's position post-war. This aspect is far more fundamental. It influences his readiness to endure costs differently.”
And even with discussions regarding his nation's territory, Mr. Zelensky will be absent from the meeting.
“For Ukraine, this is catastrophic,” Mr. Meister stated.
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