Officials from the US and Russia are set to gather in Alaska ahead of a much-anticipated meeting on Friday between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
This marks their first encounter in six years, with Trump aiming to fulfill a significant campaign promise to bring an end to Russia's conflict in Ukraine.
The US president, who has positioned himself as a global peacemaker, intends to use his personal rapport with Putin to secure a ceasefire breakthrough where others have been unsuccessful.
On Thursday, he estimated that there was a "25% chance" the meeting would not be fruitful.
Ukraine's leader, Volodymyr Zelensk, has been excluded from the discussions and cautioned that any agreements made without his presence will hold no value.
In Anchorage, there are minimal signs of the upcoming crucial meeting, apart from the influx of international media that have arrived in the region.
Reporters are mingling with tourists from the "lower 48" states visiting the Alaskan wilderness during peak tourist season.
The meeting between the two leaders will occur entirely on a nearby US military installation – indicative of security concerns and the short duration of the planned discussion, which is currently set to last just a few hours.
This summit takes place exactly one week after Trump's ultimatum for Russia to establish a ceasefire or face harsher new sanctions.
It was always highly improbable that Kyiv and Moscow – entrenched in a brutal conflict since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – would reach a consensus to end hostilities before that deadline.
There has been doubt regarding whether Trump would follow through with his threat to impose sanctions on nations conducting business with Russia, which could have triggered a severe trade conflict with China. However, he has indicated plans to impose secondary tariffs on India later this month due to its purchases of Russian oil.
The announcement last week of the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting effectively paused the sanctions countdown, providing both sides additional time to consider their next steps.
Over the week, the American stance regarding the summit’s goals and aspirations has oscillated, ranging from optimistic to cautious to threatening.
At the latter end of the spectrum, Trump has warned of "very severe consequences" if his Russian counterpart fails to agree to halt the conflict. It appeared that his resolve was strengthened after a group call on Wednesday with European leaders, including Zelensky.
Conversely, Kyiv may have been unsettled when Trump suggested the possibility of "swapping territories" while the White House hinted that the president would adopt a passive stance, treating the meeting as a "listening exercise."
Meanwhile, the Russians have largely remained quiet – choosing not to engage with speculation and rumors surrounding stalled frontlines, territorial swaps, or mineral agreements between Moscow and Washington.
There is a consistent thread in that silence. Whenever Kremlin representatives have spoken this week, it has been to reaffirm Putin's seemingly resolute stance on the conflict.
They have reiterated that the war will conclude only when Russia achieves full control over the Ukrainian areas it partially occupies – Donetsk and Luhansk, collectively called the Donbas, along with Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – alongside a commitment that Kyiv will demilitarize and refrain from joining NATO, the military alliance of Western nations.
However, Trump appears to be confident that the generally amicable rapport he has developed with Putin could facilitate a resolution to end the conflict and enhance his reputation as a global peacemaker.
This issue has become crucial in assessing what Trump has accomplished internationally since resuming the presidency. He has a domestic constituency to satisfy, and many supporters endorsed him for his promise to quickly resolve the war and disentangle America from costly overseas conflicts overall.
In advance of the summit - his first encounter with Putin in six years - American expectations are that his diplomatic approach will yield results where previous attempts to resolve the war have faltered.
His senior officials have emphasized the significance of his meeting with within face-to-face, and Trump himself has touted his business-oriented instincts, claiming he may determine "within the first two minutes... precisely whether or not a deal can be struck."
Europe is unfortunately in a position of having to navigate between two opposing sides while being left out of the discussions scheduled for Friday.
After their urgent call with Trump on Wednesday, European leaders left with a cautious sense of hope that the US president would advocate for their interests once they reached Alaska.
Both Europe and Ukraine have faced several tumultuous months, highlighted by a notable confrontation between Trump and Zelensky in the White House and Trump's temporary halt on military aid to Kyiv, a sharp contrast to the approach of his successor, Joe Biden.
Ukraine has also been pushed aside in the lead-up to Friday.
Despite the Ukrainian president’s assertions that any deal made by Trump and Putin without Ukraine's involvement would be rendered ineffective, it became increasingly evident throughout the week that the US-Russia dialogue would be strictly between the two nations.
While he was careful to maintain relations with Trump, Zelensky felt compelled to respond to the president’s casual remarks regarding the necessity for potential "swapping, changes in land" between Russia and Ukraine.
"We will not retreat from the Donbas. That is not an option," the Ukrainian president expressed, showing signs of frustration as discussions of possible territorial compromises peaked on Tuesday.
"People often overlook the crucial point: our lands are unlawfully occupied. For Russia, the Donbas serves as a foothold for a forthcoming significant offensive," he noted, contending that conceding the territory would pave the way for further conflict on Ukrainian soil.
Like many Ukrainians, Zelensky firmly believes that Putin aims to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and populace, and fears that any concession to Russia would lead to renewed and potentially devastating aggression shortly thereafter.
This belief is why he has consistently sought an invitation to participate in discussions with Trump and Putin.
Although this will not occur at the upcoming summit, the US president has committed to debriefing Zelensky afterward and has suggested he intends to push for a “swift” three-way meeting shortly.
The advantages for Putin in such a meeting remain uncertain. The Kremlin has long held that there is no reason for a meeting between Putin and Zelensky until much later in the negotiation process.
However, that timeline remains ambiguous. Ultimately, Putin's primary goal revolves around achieving the geopolitical "neutralization" of Ukraine, as noted by analyst Tatyana Stanovaya.
"It is exceedingly challenging to express the true stakes involved... as many individuals simply refuse to believe that Putin could desire so much – and be serious about it. Unfortunately, he can."
The chaotic lead-up to the Alaska summit has shown that while Trump's stance on a potential resolution of the conflict may still evolve, Putin’s position remains steadfast.
While Alaska may provide a venue for their meeting, discovering mutual ground at the negotiating table may prove more difficult.
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