According to a BBC Verify analysis, Russia has more than doubled its drone and missile assaults on Ukraine since President Donald Trump resumed office in January, despite his calls for a ceasefire.
The number of attacks had already been increasing under former President Joe Biden in 2024, but surged significantly following Trump's election win in November. Since his return to the presidency in January, Moscow's recorded aerial assaults have reached the highest levels seen during the conflict.
Trump made promises during his campaign to end the fighting within a single day if he were to regain office. He asserted during his 2024 campaign that a president who commanded respect from the Kremlin could have prevented Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
However, as he seeks to establish a ceasefire, some critics have accused him of showing favoritism towards Russia, noting that his administration has halted the shipment of air defense munitions and other military supplies to Ukraine on two occasions.
These stoppages, announced in March and July and later reversed by the president, coincided with a steady increase in Russia's production of missiles and drones. Ukrainian military intelligence reports indicate that Russian ballistic missile production rose by 66% over the past year.
The data analyzed by BBC Verify, derived from daily incident reports from the Ukrainian Air Force, revealed that from January 20—when Trump's presidency commenced—through July 19, Russia launched 27,158 munitions, compared to 11,614 during the last six months of Biden's administration.
"This brutal war emerged from Joe Biden's incompetence and has persisted for far too long," stated White House deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly in a response to BBC Verify.
"President Trump aims to halt the violence, which is why he is selling American-made weapons to NATO allies and threatening Putin with severe tariffs and sanctions if he does not consent to a ceasefire."
In the initial weeks of the new administration, the White House released a series of positive statements seemingly aimed at encouraging President Vladimir Putin towards a resolution. During that time, Russian assaults on Ukraine briefly decreased compared to the last weeks of Biden's presidency.
Nevertheless, by February, when US diplomats, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's delegation for a summit in Riyadh, the frequency of attacks began to rise again.
Rubio described these discussions as an initial effort to bring an end to the war, which have since been followed by mediated talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials in Turkey.
Attacks reached a peak earlier last month, when Moscow executed a barrage of 748 drones and missiles directed at Ukraine on July 9, as per the data from the Ukrainian Air Force. Reports indicate that more than a dozen individuals were injured, with two fatalities resulting from the strike.
Despite Trump's repeated expressions of anger regarding the intensifying Russian assaults, his growing irritation seems to have done little to alter Moscow's tactics.
On May 25, Russia executed its largest documented barrage at that point, leading Trump to furiously question, "What on earth happened to him [Putin]?"
Since that time, Russia has surpassed that reported launch figure on 14 separate occasions. In response, Trump has insisted that the Kremlin must finalize a peace agreement with Ukraine by August 8.
The quantity of Russian projectiles breaching Ukrainian air defenses appears to be on the rise, with explosions in the capital, Kyiv, becoming a routine experience for city dwellers.
"Every time you go to sleep, you aren't sure if you'll awaken the following morning, and that's simply not how life should be," stated Dasha Volk, a journalist residing in the city, while speaking to the BBC's Ukrainecast program in June.
"Whenever you hear an explosion or a missile soaring overhead, a lot of anxious thoughts cross my mind—maybe this is the moment I will die, and so forth."
Ukraine is deemed 'exposed' to aerial assaults.
Senator Chris Coons, a prominent Democrat on the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, informed BBC Verify that Trump's choices to halt weapons supplies twice and his overall strategy towards Russian relations might have led the Kremlin to believe it could escalate its aggression.
"It's evident that Putin feels emboldened by Trump's perceived weakness, which has led him to intensify his brutal campaign against the Ukrainian populace, persistently targeting hospitals, maternity wards, the Ukrainian energy grid, and other civilian locations," he mentioned.
The increasing frequency of attacks has reignited demands for the US to dispatch additional Patriot anti-aircraft batteries to Ukraine. The Patriots are among the most advanced and costly air defense systems available for Ukraine. Each Patriot battery carries a price tag of roughly $1 billion (£800 million), and the cost of each missile is nearly $4 million.
Trump has reversed past pauses in supply and consented to sell arms to NATO allies, who would then provide them to Kyiv. Trump seemed to suggest that this agreement would encompass new shipments of Patriot batteries.
Justin Bronk, an analyst specializing in the Russian military at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), indicated that limitations on military equipment distribution enforced by the White House have left Ukraine "exposed" to missile and drone strikes.
However, he also highlighted that Russia has increased the manufacturing of missiles and the so-called 'kamikaze' drones, like the Geran-2, which is a home-produced variant of the Iranian Shahed drone. Mr. Bronk noted that Russia's enhanced stockpiles, along with "substantial reductions" in the supply of US interceptor missiles, have prompted Moscow to escalate its airborne offensive.
Ukraine's Military Intelligence agency (HUR) recently informed local media that Russia is currently manufacturing as many as 85 ballistic missiles each month, an increase from 44 in April 2024.
Reports indicate that Russia is producing 170 Geran drones daily, having set up a large manufacturing plant in Alabuga located in the southern part of the country.
In a recent discussion on Russian military television, the plant's director Timur Shagivaleyev claimed that Alabuga has emerged as "the largest combat drone production facility in the world," noting that his staff is producing units at a rate nine times higher than originally anticipated.
Satellite imagery reveals that the facility has seen considerable expansion since mid-2024, with several new warehouses constructed on the premises.
Additional structures, including what seem to be extensions to worker dormitories, are still being built.
Senator Coons cautioned that the rise in production indicates that Washington must clarify it is not planning to abandon the conflict, contrary to what some administration officials have suggested. He stressed that lasting peace can only be achieved through an increase in security aid.
He also mentioned that President Trump needs to convey to Russia that it cannot simply wait out the resolve of the West.
“To accomplish this, he should uphold a steady and unwavering stance regarding the conflict.”
In the meantime, Ms. Volk expressed that with each passing day of the Russian offensive and the decline in Ukrainian interceptions, public morale suffers.
“People are becoming weary due to these assaults; they significantly impact our daily lives,” she remarked.
“While we are aware of what we are fighting for, it grows more challenging each year as everyone becomes increasingly fatigued. That is the reality.”
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