Russia more than doubled the number of drones and missiles it launched toward Ukraine during the first six months of Donald Trump's second presidency compared with the final six months of Joe Biden's administration, according to an August 2025 BBC Verify analysis of daily Ukrainian Air Force reports.
The analysis counted 27,158 Russian aerial munitions between January 20 and July 19, 2025, compared with 11,614 during the preceding six-month period. The figures reflected launches reported by Ukraine rather than independently verified impacts, and they did not by themselves establish why the increase occurred.
The escalation complicated Trump's effort to broker an end to Russia's full-scale invasion, which began in February 2022. Trump had repeatedly said during the 2024 campaign that he could rapidly end the fighting, but negotiations during his first months back in office did not produce a ceasefire.
Russian aerial attacks rose as diplomacy continued
Russian launches briefly declined during the opening weeks of the new administration, according to the BBC's review, before rising again as U.S.-Russia diplomatic contacts intensified. In February 2025, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov led delegations at talks in Riyadh intended to begin a diplomatic process around the war.
Ukraine and Russia subsequently held rounds of talks in Turkey. Those contacts produced humanitarian measures, including prisoner exchanges, but no comprehensive ceasefire or political settlement.
Meanwhile, the scale of Russia's long-range attacks continued to grow. On July 9, 2025, the Ukrainian Air Force said Russia launched 728 drones and 13 missiles overnight. Reuters reported that Ukraine said it intercepted or suppressed most of the drones and several missiles. The barrage was the largest drone attack Ukraine had reported at that point in the war.
The Ukrainian figures showed that the trend had begun before Trump took office: Russia was already expanding its use of one-way attack drones and missiles during 2024. The sharp acceleration in 2025 therefore cannot be attributed to a single diplomatic decision or change in U.S. policy without additional evidence.
Weapons pauses became part of the political dispute
The Trump administration temporarily interrupted some military assistance to Ukraine twice during the first half of 2025. Critics, including Democratic Senator Chris Coons, argued that uncertainty over U.S. support could encourage Moscow to intensify its attacks. The administration rejected claims that its policy favored Russia and said its objective was to stop the war while ensuring U.S. weapons stocks remained sufficient for American defense requirements.
Because Russian weapons production was increasing at the same time, the timing of the U.S. pauses does not demonstrate that they caused the rise in Russian launches. Analysts cited by the BBC pointed instead to several overlapping factors: expanding Russian production, larger stockpiles of attack drones and missiles, constraints on Ukraine's supply of interceptor missiles and Moscow's willingness to conduct increasingly large combined barrages.
Trump later reversed the supply interruptions and announced a mechanism under which European NATO members could purchase U.S.-made weapons for transfer to Ukraine. Air-defense equipment, including Patriot systems and interceptors, became a major part of Kyiv's requests as the scale of Russian attacks increased.
Russia expanded drone and missile production
Ukraine's military intelligence said in 2025 that Russian ballistic-missile production had risen substantially compared with the previous year. Such figures originate from Ukrainian intelligence and cannot always be independently verified, but other evidence also showed a major expansion of Russia's drone-manufacturing capacity.
Particular attention focused on the Alabuga production complex in Russia's Tatarstan region, where Geran-series one-way attack drones are manufactured. The Geran-2 is based on the Iranian-designed Shahed-136 family but has increasingly been produced and modified inside Russia.
Satellite imagery examined by researchers and news organizations showed significant construction at Alabuga as Russia increased production. BBC Verify reported Ukrainian intelligence estimates that Russia was producing as many as 85 ballistic missiles a month and about 170 Geran drones a day at the time. Those numbers should be understood as estimates rather than independently audited production totals.
The increase in manufacturing allowed Russia to assemble far larger barrages, sometimes combining hundreds of drones with ballistic and cruise missiles. Russia says its strikes are aimed at military targets and infrastructure supporting Ukraine's armed forces. Ukrainian authorities have repeatedly reported civilian deaths and damage to homes, hospitals, energy facilities and other civilian infrastructure during Russian attacks.
Why air defense became increasingly difficult
Large mixed attacks are designed in part to place multiple demands on air-defense networks at the same time. Ukraine uses a combination of mobile gun teams, electronic warfare, aircraft and several missile-defense systems, including U.S.-made Patriots, to intercept incoming weapons.
Patriot systems are especially important because they can engage some ballistic missiles that are considerably harder to stop than slower one-way attack drones. However, batteries and interceptor missiles are expensive, complex to manufacture and available in limited quantities.
Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute told the BBC in 2025 that reductions in the availability of U.S. interceptor missiles, combined with Russia's growing stockpiles, had increased Ukraine's vulnerability. That assessment described military conditions rather than establishing that any one government decision was solely responsible for Russia's escalation.
Trump increased pressure after diplomacy failed to stop the attacks
By the summer of 2025, Trump's public language toward Russian President Vladimir Putin had become more critical. After another major Russian barrage in May, Trump openly expressed frustration with Putin, and by July his administration was threatening additional economic measures if Moscow did not move toward an agreement.
The United States subsequently set an August 8 deadline for progress toward ending the war. U.S. officials told the United Nations that Washington was prepared to use tariffs and other measures if Russia did not move toward a settlement.
The deadline did not produce a comprehensive peace agreement. Diplomatic contacts continued, but Russia and Ukraine remained far apart on issues including territory, security guarantees and the conditions for stopping hostilities.
Later developments showed the war had not been halted
The August 2025 comparison captured one period of the war rather than its final trajectory. Russian missile and drone attacks continued well beyond the dates covered by the BBC analysis, while Ukraine also expanded long-range drone strikes against military facilities, oil refineries and other targets inside Russia.
As of September 2026, more than a year after the original analysis, there was still no comprehensive ceasefire. The United States continued attempting to mediate between Moscow and Kyiv, including discussion of possible trilateral talks and narrower arrangements concerning attacks on energy infrastructure.
On September 18, 2026, Trump signed legislation imposing additional pressure on Russia, including measures targeting its energy and defense sectors and vessels used to circumvent oil restrictions. Diplomacy nevertheless remained unresolved.
Russian aerial attacks also remained a major threat. On September 30, 2026, Russia carried out another large assault on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, killing civilians and forcing emergency power cuts, according to Ukrainian officials and Reuters reporting. Ukraine's Air Force said hundreds of drones were involved.
The later developments reinforce the central finding of the 2025 data without establishing a simple causal explanation: Russian aerial warfare intensified dramatically during Trump's first months back in office even as Washington pursued negotiations. The scale of those attacks reflected Russia's expanding production capacity, the evolving contest between offensive weapons and Ukrainian air defenses, and a war in which diplomacy had yet to produce a durable settlement.
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