Ukraine's president last met President Donald Trump at the White House in October - EPA/ShutterstockKazakhstan's Ministry of Transport has released an interim update on the investigation into the Azerbaijan Airlines crash that claimed 38 lives exactly one year ago. The Embraer 190 aircraft went down near Aktau on December 25, 2024, during what should have been a routine passenger flight from Baku to Grozny.
The disaster killed 38 people, including three crew members, while 29 others sustained injuries of varying severity.
Diplomatic Tensions Following Tragedy
The incident triggered a major diplomatic rift between Russia and Azerbaijan, straining bilateral relations for months. Though ties have recently begun to stabilize, the crash exposed serious questions about flight safety over conflict zones.
The investigation is being led by a special commission under Kazakhstan's Ministry of Transport, established immediately after the crash.
Critical Evidence From Flight Recorders
Investigators have made significant progress in extracting crucial data from the aircraft's black boxes. Information from the flight data recorder has been successfully extracted
and decoded, while the cockpit voice recorder has been fully analyzed.
This incident recalls similar tensions over MH17, where military activity in conflict zones led to civilian aircraft disasters.
External Fragments Caused Damage
Forensic examinations revealed critical findings about what brought down the aircraft. While analyses of foreign metallic objects found no traces of explosive substances, investigators concluded that damage to the aircraft was likely caused by external metallic fragments "consistent with fragments that may resemble warhead components".
Their origin could not be definitively identified.
A separate analysis of hydraulic system No. 2 revealed that tubing had sustained rupture damage due to impact with solid objects. Experts determined the punctures were likely caused by external metal fragments composed of iron-based alloys such as steel.
International Cooperation and Ongoing Work
Accredited representatives from Azerbaijan, Russia, and Brazil are participating in the investigation, along with an International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) observer. A preliminary report was previously issued on February 4, 2025.
Two dedicated working groups have been formed as part of the investigation. One group is reviewing how flight risks were assessed over or near conflict zones, in line with ICAO guidance.
The second group has reconstructed components of the aircraft's hydraulic system in Aktau to study the sequence of technical failures.
Data Recovery Challenges
Investigators attempted to recover data from the aircraft's Central Maintenance Computer, manufactured by Honeywell International. Due to severe thermal damage, data retrieval was not possible.
Kazakhstan's investigation team is now coordinating with U.S. authorities to conduct further analysis at the facilities of Delkin Devices, the manufacturer of the memory card.
Timeline Remains Uncertain
The Ministry of Transport noted that the timeline for completing the investigation depends on the results of the remaining technical analyses. Once finalized, the full report, including conclusions, contributing factors, and safety recommendations, will be published on the ministry's official website.
The ministry emphasized that the investigation is being conducted solely to prevent similar incidents in the future, not to assign blame or determine legal liability.
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